Value bet: Tenerife II to win @ 3.50 – our chance 38% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +33%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultTenerife II to win ✗38% · @3.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.92
Xerez vs Tenerife II: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
11:00 WAT, Sunday 4 October: Xerez v Tenerife II in the Segunda División RFEF Group 4. In the table, Xerez are 6th, upper half, on 15 points after 10 matches; Tenerife II are 14th (lower half) with 10.
Current form
Xerez, last 5: LDLDD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Recreativo Huelva, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.2 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Tenerife II, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Estepona, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.8 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Tenerife II, collecting 1.5 points per game to 0.7 for Xerez.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Xerez 1.1 xG, Tenerife II 1.1 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Xerez 38%, draw 24%, Tenerife II 38%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Tenerife II to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 38%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (54%, odds 1.91 – longer than our fair 1.87, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Xerez 1–1 Tenerife II. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Xerez38%fair 2.65 · @2.05
Draw24%fair 4.11 · @2.90
Tenerife II38%fair 2.64 · @3.50
2.13Expected goals
1.06Xerez xG
1.07Tenerife II xG
54%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–013%
0–012%
1–27%
2–17%
From our goals model: Xerez 1.1 – 1.1 Tenerife II expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tenerife II to win✗
38%
2.64
3.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
54%
1.87
1.91
Draw no bet
Tenerife II (draw no bet)✗
50%
2.00
–
Asian handicap
Xerez +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Tenerife II to score first✓
44%
2.27
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.07
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Draw / FT Draw✗
20%
4.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
7%
13.92
–
Recent results
Xerez – last 6
LDLDDD
27 Sep
@ Recreativo Huelva
0–1
L
20 Sep
vs Don Benito
0–0
D
13 Sep
vs Badajoz
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ Estepona
0–0
D
14 Aug
@ Portuense
0–0
D
17 May
@ Conquense
0–0
D
0.2Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Tenerife II – last 6
WWWLLL
27 Sep
vs Estepona
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ Ciudad de Lucena
2–1
W
13 Sep
vs Atlético Central
3–1
W
6 Sep
@ Badajoz
1–2
L
18 Jul
@ Tenerife
0–3
L
3 May
vs SS Reyes
1–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
83%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Xerez and Tenerife II.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 54% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Xerez vs Tenerife II?
On our numbers Xerez have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Tenerife II 38%.
How many goals will there be in Xerez vs Tenerife II?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Xerez vs Tenerife II?
Our predicted score is Xerez 1–1 Tenerife II, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Xerez vs Tenerife II?
Xerez vs Tenerife II (Segunda División RFEF Group 4) kicks off on Sunday 4 October 2026 at 11:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
