GAP Connah S Quay FC v Penybont Prediction & Expected Goals (3 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultGAP Connah S Quay FC to win ✓60% · @1.91

Double chanceGAP Connah S Quay FC or draw ✓86% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗56% · @1.75

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.07

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Saturday 3 October the Premier League brings GAP Connah S Quay FC against Penybont at Essity Stadium. Kick-off: 14:30 WAT. In the table, GAP Connah S Quay FC are 2nd, among the top four, on 38 points after 16 matches; Penybont are 3rd (among the top four) with 36. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

GAP Connah S Quay FC, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Barry Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.

Penybont, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Airbus UK, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Momentum favours Penybont, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.2 for GAP Connah S Quay FC.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.1 xG, Penybont 0.9 xG – a total near 3.0. That is an open game on paper: 58% for three or more goals, 56% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – GAP Connah S Quay FC 60%, draw 26%, Penybont 14%.
Lower-risk option: GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: GAP Connah S Quay FC to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 60%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Penybont. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

GAP Connah S Quay FC60%fair 1.65 · @1.91

Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.20

Penybont14%fair 7.39 · @3.80

3.00Expected goals

2.06GAP Connah S Quay FC xG

0.94Penybont xG

56%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–011%

1–010%

2–110%

1–110%

3–07%

3–17%

From our goals model: GAP Connah S Quay FC 2.1 – 0.9 Penybont expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	GAP Connah S Quay FC to win ✓	60%	1.65	1.91 ▲
Double chance	GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw ✓	86%	1.16	1.22 ▲
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✗	56%	1.78	1.75
Draw no bet	GAP Connah S Quay FC (draw no bet) ✓	82%	1.22	–
Asian handicap	GAP Connah S Quay FC -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.58	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✗	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	GAP Connah S Quay FC to score first ✓	65%	1.53	–
Half-time result	GAP Connah S Quay FC ahead at half-time ✗	46%	2.17	–
Half-time / full-time	HT GAP Connah S Quay FC / FT GAP Connah S Quay FC ✗	41%	2.46	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.07	–

GAP Connah S Quay FC – last 6

WWWLDW

26 Sep	@ Barry Town	4–1	W
18 Sep	vs Cardiff MET	1–0	W
15 Sep	vs Airbus UK	3–0	W
12 Sep	@ Colwyn Bay	1–2	L
4 Sep	vs Haverfordwest County AFC	1–1	D
31 Aug	@ Flint Town United	2–1	W

2.0Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Penybont – last 6

WWWWWD

26 Sep	vs Airbus UK	2–1	W
18 Sep	@ Ammanford AFC	5–1	W
15 Sep	vs Briton Ferry	3–2	W
11 Sep	@ Trefelin	1–0	W
5 Sep	vs Colwyn Bay	1–0	W
31 Aug	@ Cambrian & Clydach	2–2	D

2.3Scored / game

1.0Conceded / game

67%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	The New Saints	16	14	2	0	+48	44
2	GAP Connah S Quay FC	16	12	2	2	+25	38
3	Penybont	15	11	3	1	+21	36
4	Colwyn Bay	16	10	2	4	+10	32
5	Airbus UK	16	10	0	6	+10	30
6	Caernarfon Town	16	9	2	5	+21	29
7	Barry Town	16	9	2	5	+6	29
8	Cardiff MET	16	7	4	5	+6	25
9	Cambrian & Clydach	16	5	4	7	-15	19
10	Llandudno	16	5	1	10	-7	16
11	Haverfordwest County AFC	16	5	1	10	-11	16
12	Briton Ferry	16	4	3	9	-11	15
13	Flint Town United	16	4	2	10	-8	14
14	Ammanford AFC	16	3	3	10	-30	12
15	Trefelin	16	1	3	12	-29	6
16	Holywell	15	0	2	13	-36	2

Team

Pts

+48

+25

+21

+10

+10

+21

-15

-7

Haverfordwest County AFC

-11

-11

-8

-30

-29

-36

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?

Our pick is GAP Connah S Quay FC or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?

On our numbers GAP Connah S Quay FC have a 60% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Penybont 14%.

How many goals will there be in GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?

Our predicted score is GAP Connah S Quay FC 2–0 Penybont, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont?

GAP Connah S Quay FC vs Penybont (Premier League) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 14:30 (West Africa Time) at Essity Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

GAP Connah S Quay FC v Penybont: numbers & prediction