Value bet: Penafiel to win @ 2.36 – our chance 46% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultPenafiel to win46% · @2.36
Double chanceEither team to win73% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score58% · @1.78
GoalsOver 1.5 goals73% · @1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–19% · fair 10.55
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 November the Segunda Liga brings Penafiel against Lusitânia Lourosa at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril. Kick-off: 16:30 WAT. In the table, Penafiel are 1st, leading the league, on 22 points after 10 matches; Lusitânia Lourosa are 4th (among the top four) with 19. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Penafiel, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Chaves, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Lusitânia Lourosa, last 5: LDDWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Feirense, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Penafiel, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.5 for Lusitânia Lourosa.
Head to head
When they last met (16 Feb 2026) it ended Penafiel 2–0 Lusitânia Lourosa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Penafiel 1.6 xG, Lusitânia Lourosa 1.1 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Penafiel 46%, draw 27%, Lusitânia Lourosa 28%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.78.
Price worth noting: Penafiel to win @2.36 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 46%.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.31). Most likely score in line with that pick: Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Penafiel46%fair 2.19 · @2.36
Draw27%fair 3.75 · @2.88
Lusitânia Lourosa28%fair 3.60 · @3.18
2.78Expected goals
1.63Penafiel xG
1.15Lusitânia Lourosa xG
58%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
2–19%
2–08%
0–17%
1–27%
From our goals model: Penafiel 1.6 – 1.1 Lusitânia Lourosa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Penafiel
Lusitânia Lourosa
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+48%
-0%
Goals conceded vs average
-4%
-8%
Our expected goals here
1.82
1.17
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
What is the prediction for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.31.
Who will win Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
On our numbers Penafiel have a 46% chance of winning, the draw 27% and Lusitânia Lourosa 28%.
How many goals will there be in Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Our predicted score is Penafiel 1–1 Lusitânia Lourosa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa?
Penafiel vs Lusitânia Lourosa (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 16:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Municipal 25 de Abril.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
