Tondela vs Farense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 15 November the Segunda Liga brings Tondela against Farense. Kick-off: 12:00 WAT. In the table, Tondela are 7th, upper half, on 16 points after 10 matches; Farense are 8th (upper half) with 15. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Tondela, last 5: DWLDW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Sporting CP B, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Farense, last 5: LDLWW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Benfica B, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.2 a game lately.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Tondela 1.6 xG, Farense 1.1 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 51%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Tondela 51%, draw 25%, Farense 24%.
Lower-risk option: Tondela or draw (76%) at 1.23.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.84.
Betarazi verdict
We are going with Tondela or draw (76%, odds 1.23). Most likely score in line with that pick: Tondela 1–1 Farense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Tondela51%fair 1.97 · @1.92
Draw25%fair 4.01 · @3.40
Farense24%fair 4.11 · @3.68
2.69Expected goals
1.56Tondela xG
1.13Farense xG
51%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Tondela 1.6 – 1.1 Farense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Tondela
Farense
Attack vs Segunda Liga average
+5%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
-7%
+7%
Our expected goals here
1.50
1.28
Our own ratings from every Segunda Liga result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Tondela to win
51%
1.97
1.92
Double chance
Tondela or draw
76%
1.32
1.23
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
51%
1.95
1.84
Draw no bet
Tondela (draw no bet)
68%
1.48
–
Asian handicap
Farense +1 (Asian handicap)
68%
1.46
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
73%
1.38
1.29
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals
52%
1.93
1.72
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
73%
1.37
1.21
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
87%
1.15
1.03
First team to score
Tondela to score first
54%
1.85
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
42%
2.38
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Tondela / FT Tondela
28%
3.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
9%
10.71
–
Recent results
Tondela – last 6
DWLDWW
8 Nov
@ Sporting CP B
1–1
D
1 Nov
vs Felgueiras 1932
3–2
W
25 Oct
@ AVS
1–2
L
18 Oct
vs Alverca
0–0
D
10 Oct
vs Torreense
1–0
W
19 Sep
@ Imortal Albufeira
5–1
W
1.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Farense – last 6
LDLWWW
8 Nov
vs Benfica B
2–3
L
1 Nov
@ Lusitânia Lourosa
1–1
D
24 Oct
vs Penafiel
1–4
L
17 Oct
vs AD Marco 09
3–0
W
11 Oct
vs Feirense
2–1
W
4 Oct
vs Chaves
4–0
W
2.2Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Tondela and Farense.
Our pick is Tondela or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.23.
Who will win Tondela vs Farense?
On our numbers Tondela have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Farense 24%.
How many goals will there be in Tondela vs Farense?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Tondela vs Farense?
Our predicted score is Tondela 1–1 Farense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Tondela vs Farense?
Tondela vs Farense (Segunda Liga) kicks off on Sunday 15 November 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
