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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Leganes v Mérida AD: numbers & prediction

Friendlies Clubs · World

Leganes

WLLWD
3–0
FT

Mérida AD

LLLWD
Leganes 51%Draw 25%Mérida AD 24% Expected goals 1.44 – 1.10
51%
Betarazi pick

Leganes to win

Fair pick · fair odds 1.96 · bookmaker 1.62 · Won ✓

3/10Rating
1.62Odds

Picks by market

ResultLeganes to win ✓51% · @1.62
Double chanceLeganes or draw ✓76% · fair 1.32
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · fair 1.87
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75% · fair 1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✓4% · fair 25.57

Leganes vs Mérida AD: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

18:00 WAT, Friday 7 August: Leganes v Mérida AD in the Friendlies Clubs.

Current form

Leganes, last 5: WLLWD Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Al-Rayyan SC, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Mérida AD, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Benfica B, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 5. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Momentum favours Leganes, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.7 for Mérida AD.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Leganes 1.4 xG, Mérida AD 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 46%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Leganes 51%, draw 25%, Mérida AD 24%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Leganes to win (51%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leganes 1–0 Mérida AD. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Leganes51%fair 1.96 · @1.62
Draw25%fair 4.04 · @3.70
Mérida AD24%fair 4.14 · @4.33
2.53Expected goals
1.44Leganes xG
1.10Mérida AD xG
46%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
1–011%
2–19%
0–19%
2–08%
0–08%

From our goals model: Leganes 1.4 – 1.1 Mérida AD expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

LeganesMérida AD
Attack vs Friendlies Clubs average-19%-12%
Goals conceded vs average-26%+21%
Our expected goals here1.241.26

Our own ratings from every Friendlies Clubs result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultLeganes to win ✓51%1.961.62
Double chanceLeganes or draw ✓76%1.32–
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓54%1.87–
Draw no betLeganes (draw no bet) ✓68%1.47–
Asian handicapMérida AD +1 (Asian handicap) ✗72%1.39–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓72%1.39–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓51%1.971.70
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓75%1.33–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.13–
First team to scoreLeganes to score first ✓52%1.92–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗44%2.29–
Half-time / full-timeHT Leganes / FT Leganes ✓26%3.79–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✓4%25.57–

Recent results

Leganes – last 6

WLLWDD
4 Augvs Al-Rayyan SC2–1W
1 Aug@ Swansea0–1L
28 Jul@ Real Madrid1–4L
24 Jul@ Penafiel2–0W
22 Jul@ Nacional0–0D
17 Julvs Albacete0–0D
0.8Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Mérida AD – last 6

LLLWDL
25 Jul@ Benfica B0–4L
9 May@ Barakaldo0–2L
24 Apr@ Arenas Getxo0–2L
19 Apr@ Arenteiro2–0W
20 Mar@ Athletic Club II1–1D
13 Marvs Guadalajara1–4L
0.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Leganes and Mérida AD.

Leganes vs Mérida AD head-to-head page →

More Friendlies Clubs predictions

League hub
FT Cordoba0 Almeria4 134%2.30X25%3.20241%2.70 1.1–1.4xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 50%@1.75 ✓
FT Racing Santander4 Sporting Gijon1 145%2.10X22%3.65232%2.85 1.8–1.3xG GGBoth teams to score 64%@1.48 ✓
FT Melbourne City0 Palermo2 120%5.25X23%4.00257%1.50 1.2–1.9xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 62%@1.48 ✓
FT Bayern München2 Aston Villa1 150%1.90X21%3.95228%3.45 2.1–1.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.45 ✓
FT Sudtirol1 Virtus Verona0 164%1.20X23%5.25213%11.00 1.6–0.7xG 1Sudtirol to win 64%@1.20 ✓
FT Fulham1 Crystal Palace2 142%2.40X24%3.45233%2.75 1.6–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 77%@1.25 ✓
FT AD Ceuta FC2 Malaga1 128%3.25X22%3.60251%1.90 1.3–1.8xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 58%@1.67 ✓
FT Hércules0 Castellón0 Pens 4–5 129%2.50X25%3.40246%2.40 1.1–1.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 54%@1.75 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Leganes vs Mérida AD?

Our pick is Leganes to win with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Leganes vs Mérida AD?

On our numbers Leganes have a 51% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Mérida AD 24%.

How many goals will there be in Leganes vs Mérida AD?

We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Leganes vs Mérida AD?

Our predicted score is Leganes 1–0 Mérida AD, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.

When is Leganes vs Mérida AD?

Leganes vs Mérida AD (Friendlies Clubs) kicks off on Friday 7 August 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.