Very strong pick · fair odds 1.26 · bookmaker 1.20 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Carlisle to win @ 1.62 – our chance 66% vs 62% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultCarlisle to win ✓66% · @1.62
Double chanceCarlisle or draw ✓88% · @1.13
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.65
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.23
Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
AFC Hornchurch travel to face Carlisle on Saturday 22 August in the National League, with Brunton Park the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT. In the table, Carlisle are 8th, upper half, on 26 points after 16 matches; AFC Hornchurch are 15th (lower half) with 21.
Current form
Carlisle, last 5: DLWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Yeovil Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
AFC Hornchurch, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Norwich City U21, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.
Momentum favours AFC Hornchurch, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Carlisle.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Carlisle 2.2 xG, AFC Hornchurch 0.9 xG – a total near 3.1. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Carlisle 66%, draw 22%, AFC Hornchurch 12%.
Lower-risk option: Carlisle or draw (88%) at 1.13.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.65.
Price worth noting: Carlisle to win @1.62 – the bookmaker implies 62%, our ratings say 66%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Carlisle 2–0 AFC Hornchurch. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Carlisle66%fair 1.52 · @1.62
Draw22%fair 4.56 · @3.95
AFC Hornchurch12%fair 8.29 · @4.40
3.10Expected goals
2.22Carlisle xG
0.89AFC Hornchurch xG
60%Both score
58%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–011%
1–010%
2–110%
1–19%
3–08%
3–17%
From our goals model: Carlisle 2.2 – 0.9 AFC Hornchurch expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Carlisle to win✓
66%
1.52
1.62 ▲
Double chance
Carlisle or draw✓
88%
1.14
1.13
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.68
1.65
Draw no bet
Carlisle (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.18
–
Asian handicap
Carlisle -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
80%
1.26
1.20
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
58%
1.72
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
1.44
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
80%
1.25
–
First team to score
Carlisle to score first✓
68%
1.47
–
Half-time result
Carlisle ahead at half-time✓
49%
2.03
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Carlisle / FT Carlisle✓
44%
2.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
Carlisle – last 6
DLWLWD
15 Aug
@ Yeovil Town
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Worthing
2–3
L
1 Aug
@ Derby County U21
3–0
W
28 Jul
vs Salford City
0–2
L
21 Jul
@ Darlington 1883
4–2
W
3 May
vs Boreham Wood
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
AFC Hornchurch – last 6
LWWWLW
18 Aug
vs Norwich City U21
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Barrow
2–1
W
8 Aug
vs Kidderminster Harriers
3–0
W
1 Aug
vs Coventry City U21
2–0
W
28 Jul
@ Enfield Town
2–4
L
25 Jul
vs Tottenham Hotspur U21
3–1
W
2.2Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Carlisle and AFC Hornchurch.
What is the prediction for Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
On our numbers Carlisle have a 66% chance of winning, the draw 22% and AFC Hornchurch 12%.
How many goals will there be in Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
We expect about 3.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Our predicted score is Carlisle 2–0 AFC Hornchurch, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.1 goals in total.
When is Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch?
Carlisle vs AFC Hornchurch (National League) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Brunton Park.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
