Buxton v Chester Prediction & Expected Goals (12 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultChester to win ✗39% · @2.50

Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @1.67

GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · fair 1.34

Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.23

Buxton vs Chester: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Chester travel to face Buxton on Saturday 12 September in the National League North, with The Silverlands the venue – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT. In the table, Buxton are 7th, upper half, on 27 points after 16 matches; Chester are 8th (upper half) with 26. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Buxton, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Brackley Town, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.

Chester, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Merthyr Town, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Buxton 1.3 xG, Chester 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 59%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Buxton 38%, draw 23%, Chester 39%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.67.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (59%, odds 1.67). Most likely score in line with that pick: Buxton 1–1 Chester. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Buxton38%fair 2.63 · @2.50

Draw23%fair 4.38 · @3.10

Chester39%fair 2.56 · @2.50

2.56Expected goals

1.27Buxton xG

1.29Chester xG

59%Both score

47%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%

0–110%

1–010%

1–28%

2–18%

0–08%

From our goals model: Buxton 1.3 – 1.3 Chester expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Chester to win ✗	39%	2.56	2.50
Double chance	Either team to win ✓	77%	1.30	1.30
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	59%	1.71	1.67
Draw no bet	Chester (draw no bet) ✗	51%	1.97	–
Asian handicap	Buxton +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	63%	1.59	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	72%	1.38	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	53%	1.89	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	74%	1.34	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	88%	1.13	–
First team to score	Chester to score first	47%	2.15	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✗	44%	2.30	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Chester / FT Chester ✗	21%	4.67	–
Correct score	Correct score 1–2 ✗	8%	12.23	–

Buxton – last 6

WLWWLL

8 Sep	vs Brackley Town	5–0	W
5 Sep	@ Morecambe	0–4	L
31 Aug	vs Merthyr Town	2–1	W
28 Aug	@ Oxford City	3–2	W
22 Aug	vs Hebburn Town	1–2	L
18 Aug	@ Bedford Town	1–2	L

2.0Scored / game

1.8Conceded / game

67%Both scored

100%Over 2.5

Chester – last 6

LDLDWW

8 Sep	vs Merthyr Town	0–1	L
5 Sep	@ Hebburn Town	1–1	D
31 Aug	vs Morecambe	0–1	L
29 Aug	@ Hereford	1–1	D
22 Aug	vs Spalding United	1–0	W
18 Aug	@ Darlington 1883	1–0	W

0.7Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

33%Both scored

0%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	South Shields	15	10	2	3	+10	32
2	Hereford	16	9	3	4	+14	30
3	Oxford City	15	8	4	3	+15	28
4	Macclesfield	13	8	3	2	+10	27
5	Hednesford Town	16	8	3	5	+8	27
6	King's Lynn Town	16	8	3	5	+6	27
7	Buxton	16	8	3	5	+5	27
8	Chester	15	8	2	5	+4	26
9	Morecambe	16	7	3	6	+5	24
10	Bedford Town	14	7	1	6	-2	22
11	AFC Telford United	16	6	4	6	-4	22
12	Spalding United	15	6	3	6	+3	21
13	Chorley	15	6	2	7	-1	20
14	Worksop Town	15	6	2	7	-1	20
15	Hebburn Town	15	5	5	5	-8	20
16	Marine	15	6	1	8	0	19
17	Merthyr Town	16	4	7	5	-1	19
18	Brackley Town	16	5	4	7	-9	19
19	Harborough Town	14	4	5	5	-4	17
20	Scarborough Athletic	16	4	4	8	-3	16
21	Radcliffe	15	5	1	9	-8	16
22	Darlington 1883	16	3	3	10	-9	12
23	Southport	15	2	4	9	-15	10
24	Spennymoor Town	15	2	4	9	-15	10

Team

Pts

+10

+14

+15

+10

-2

-4

-1

-1

-8

-1

-9

-4

-3

-8

-9

-15

-15

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Buxton vs Chester?

Our pick is Both teams to score with a 59% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.67.

Who will win Buxton vs Chester?

On our numbers Buxton have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Chester 39%.

How many goals will there be in Buxton vs Chester?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Buxton vs Chester?

Our predicted score is Buxton 1–1 Chester, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Buxton vs Chester?

Buxton vs Chester (National League North) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time) at The Silverlands.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Buxton v Chester: numbers & prediction