Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sumqayıt welcome Neftchi Baku to Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium for a Premyer Liqa fixture on Sunday 16 August (16:00 WAT). In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Neftchi Baku are 1st (leading the league) with 24. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Sumqayıt, last 5: LLWLL Their latest outing: 3–4 defeat to Qarabag, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Dinamo Minsk, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.5 points per game to 0.5 for Sumqayıt.
Head to head
When they last met (5 Apr 2026) it ended Sumqayıt 1–3 Neftchi Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 0.8 xG, Neftchi Baku 2.0 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 54%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 15%, draw 22%, Neftchi Baku 64%.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.77.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 0–2 Neftchi Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt15%fair 6.75 · @5.00
Draw22%fair 4.64 · @3.70
Neftchi Baku64%fair 1.57 · @1.60
2.77Expected goals
0.82Sumqayıt xG
1.95Neftchi Baku xG
54%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–112%
0–212%
1–110%
1–210%
0–38%
1–36%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 0.8 – 2.0 Neftchi Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 15% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Neftchi Baku 64%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–2 Neftchi Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku?
Sumqayıt vs Neftchi Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 16:00 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
