Value bet: Benevento to win @ 2.26 – our chance 48% vs 44% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBenevento to win ✗48% · @2.26
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.85
Benevento vs Modena: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 22 August the Serie B brings Benevento against Modena at Stadio Ciro Vigorito. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Benevento are 6th, upper half, on 16 points after 11 matches; Modena are 2nd (among the top four) with 23.
Current form
Benevento, last 5: LWDWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Fiorentina, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately.
Modena, last 5: LDWLW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Venezia, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Benevento, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.2 for Modena.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benevento 1.5 xG, Modena 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 48%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benevento 48%, draw 22%, Modena 29%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.73.
Price worth noting: Benevento to win @2.26 – the bookmaker implies 44%, our ratings say 48%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benevento 1–1 Modena. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benevento48%fair 2.07 · @2.26
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @3.35
Modena29%fair 3.41 · @3.00
2.61Expected goals
1.51Benevento xG
1.10Modena xG
57%Both score
48%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–011%
2–19%
2–08%
0–18%
0–07%
From our goals model: Benevento 1.5 – 1.1 Modena expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benevento to win✗
48%
2.07
2.26 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.29
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.73
Draw no bet
Benevento (draw no bet)✗
62%
1.61
–
Asian handicap
Modena +1 (Asian handicap)✓
70%
1.44
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.83
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.16
1.10
First team to score
Benevento to score first✓
54%
1.87
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benevento / FT Benevento✗
28%
3.61
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.85
–
Recent results
Benevento – last 6
LWDWWL
14 Aug
@ Fiorentina
1–4
L
9 Aug
vs Ravenna
5–3
W
1 Aug
@ Frosinone
2–2
D
31 Jul
@ Vis Pesaro
2–1
W
26 Jul
@ Ostia Mare
2–0
W
13 Apr
vs Cavese
0–1
L
2.0Scored / game
1.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Modena – last 6
LDWLWL
15 Aug
@ Venezia
2–3
L
8 Aug
vs Vis Pesaro
0–0
D
1 Aug
@ Trento
1–0
W
28 Jul
@ Cagliari
0–1
L
25 Jul
vs Virtus Bolzano
5–0
W
12 May
vs Juve Stabia
0–1
L
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benevento and Modena.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Benevento vs Modena?
On our numbers Benevento have a 48% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Modena 29%.
How many goals will there be in Benevento vs Modena?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 48% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benevento vs Modena?
Our predicted score is Benevento 1–1 Modena, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Benevento vs Modena?
Benevento vs Modena (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ciro Vigorito.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
