Value bet: Empoli to win @ 2.65 – our chance 43% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultEmpoli to win ✓43% · @2.65
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.77
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓76% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.67
Empoli vs Cremonese: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:00 WAT, Saturday 22 August: Empoli v Cremonese in the Serie B, played at Stadio Carlo Castellani. In the table, Empoli are 19th, in the drop zone, on 9 points after 11 matches; Cremonese are 9th (upper half) with 15.
Current form
Empoli, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Pisa, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.
Cremonese, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sampdoria, at home. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Empoli 1.3 xG, Cremonese 1.1 xG – a total near 2.5. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 45%, GG 58%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Empoli 43%, draw 23%, Cremonese 33%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.77.
Price worth noting: Empoli to win @2.65 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (76%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Empoli 1–1 Cremonese. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Empoli43%fair 2.31 · @2.65
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @3.15
Cremonese33%fair 2.99 · @2.65
2.47Expected goals
1.34Empoli xG
1.13Cremonese xG
58%Both score
45%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
1–011%
0–110%
2–19%
0–08%
2–08%
From our goals model: Empoli 1.3 – 1.1 Cremonese expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Empoli to win✓
43%
2.31
2.65 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.77
Draw no bet
Empoli (draw no bet)✓
56%
1.77
–
Asian handicap
Cremonese +1 (Asian handicap)
75%
1.33
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
70%
1.44
1.38
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.70
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
76%
1.32
1.25
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
88%
1.13
1.08
First team to score
Empoli to score first✓
50%
2.02
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
44%
2.25
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Empoli / FT Empoli✓
24%
4.16
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.67
–
Recent results
Empoli – last 6
DDDWDW
17 Aug
@ Pisa
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Livorno
1–1
D
1 Aug
vs Spezia
1–1
D
25 Jul
vs Virtus Entella
1–0
W
8 May
@ Monza
2–2
D
1 May
vs Avellino
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
67%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Cremonese – last 6
WDDWLW
17 Aug
vs Sampdoria
2–0
W
1 Aug
vs Lumezzane
0–0
D
29 Jul
vs Cittadella
1–1
D
24 Jul
vs Giana Erminio
4–0
W
24 May
vs Como
1–4
L
17 May
@ Udinese
1–0
W
1.5Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Empoli and Cremonese.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Empoli vs Cremonese?
On our numbers Empoli have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Cremonese 33%.
How many goals will there be in Empoli vs Cremonese?
We expect about 2.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 45% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Empoli vs Cremonese?
Our predicted score is Empoli 1–1 Cremonese, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.5 goals in total.
When is Empoli vs Cremonese?
Empoli vs Cremonese (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Carlo Castellani.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
