Very strong pick · fair odds 1.22 · bookmaker 1.25 · Won ✓
9/10Rating
1.25Odds
1
Value bet: Ascoli to win @ 1.91 – our chance 56% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAscoli to win ✗56% · @1.91
Double chanceAscoli or draw ✓82% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.25
Ascoli vs Empoli: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Saturday 17 October the Serie B brings Ascoli against Empoli at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca. Kick-off: 14:00 WAT. In the table, Ascoli are 3rd, among the top four, on 20 points after 11 matches; Empoli are 19th (in the drop zone) with 9.
Current form
Ascoli, last 5: DWLWD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sudtirol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Empoli, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 2–4 defeat to Palermo, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Ascoli, collecting 1.8 points per game to 1.0 for Empoli.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Ascoli 1.5 xG, Empoli 0.7 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Ascoli 56%, draw 25%, Empoli 18%.
Lower-risk option: Ascoli or draw (82%) at 1.25.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Ascoli to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Ascoli or draw (82%, odds 1.25 – longer than our fair 1.22, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ascoli 1–0 Empoli. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Ascoli56%fair 1.77 · @1.91
Draw25%fair 3.94 · @3.40
Empoli18%fair 5.49 · @3.75
2.25Expected goals
1.52Ascoli xG
0.73Empoli xG
52%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–012%
1–112%
0–011%
2–19%
0–18%
From our goals model: Ascoli 1.5 – 0.7 Empoli expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ascoli to win✗
56%
1.77
1.91 ▲
Double chance
Ascoli or draw✓
82%
1.22
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
52%
1.93
1.75
Draw no bet
Ascoli (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Empoli +1.5 (Asian handicap)✓
71%
1.42
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Ascoli to score first
60%
1.66
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ascoli / FT Ascoli✗
34%
2.95
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.25
–
Recent results
Ascoli – last 6
DWLWDW
10 Oct
@ Sudtirol
0–0
D
19 Sep
vs Avellino
3–1
W
12 Sep
@ Padova
0–1
L
5 Sep
vs Benevento
1–0
W
29 Aug
vs Carrarese
1–1
D
23 Aug
@ Hellas Verona
2–1
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Empoli – last 6
LLLWLW
10 Oct
vs Palermo
2–4
L
20 Sep
@ Modena
1–2
L
11 Sep
vs Arezzo
0–1
L
5 Sep
@ Carrarese
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Mantova
1–3
L
22 Aug
vs Cremonese
1–0
W
1.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Ascoli and Empoli.
Our pick is Ascoli or draw with a 82% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Ascoli vs Empoli?
On our numbers Ascoli have a 56% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Empoli 18%.
How many goals will there be in Ascoli vs Empoli?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Ascoli vs Empoli?
Our predicted score is Ascoli 1–0 Empoli, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Ascoli vs Empoli?
Ascoli vs Empoli (Serie B) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Cino e Lillo Del Duca.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
