Qabala 62%Draw 24%Safa Baku 14%Expected goals 1.50 – 0.54
86%
Betarazi pick
Qabala or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.17 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Qabala to win @ 1.95 – our chance 62% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultQabala to win ✗62% · @1.95
Double chanceQabala or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓79% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.65
Qabala vs Safa Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Safa Baku travel to face Qabala on Saturday 22 August in the Premyer Liqa – the ball rolls at 15:30 WAT. In the table, Qabala are 10th, in the drop zone, on 8 points after 11 matches; Safa Baku are 11th (in the drop zone) with 5. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Qabala, last 5: LWWLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Turan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Safa Baku, last 5: LLDDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Zira, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Qabala, collecting 1.5 points per game to 1.0 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qabala 1.5 xG, Safa Baku 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 60%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qabala 62%, draw 24%, Safa Baku 14%.
Lower-risk option: Qabala or draw (86%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Qabala to win @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 62%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Qabala or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qabala 1–0 Safa Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qabala62%fair 1.62 · @1.95
Draw24%fair 4.20 · @3.20
Safa Baku14%fair 6.94 · @3.70
2.04Expected goals
1.50Qabala xG
0.54Safa Baku xG
51%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Qabala 1.5 – 0.5 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qabala to win✗
62%
1.62
1.95 ▲
Double chance
Qabala or draw✗
86%
1.17
1.20
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.98
1.75
Draw no bet
Qabala (draw no bet)✗
81%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Qabala -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.53
1.33
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
60%
1.68
1.77 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
79%
1.27
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Qabala to score first✗
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qabala / FT Qabala✗
37%
2.72
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.65
–
Recent results
Qabala – last 6
LWWLLW
14 Aug
@ Turan
0–1
L
28 May
vs Mingəçevir
2–0
W
21 May
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
19 Apr
@ Sumqayıt
0–1
L
12 Apr
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
5 Apr
@ Kapaz
2–0
W
1.2Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLDDWD
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
6 May
@ Difai Ağsu
0–0
D
29 Apr
vs Şimal
0–0
D
22 Apr
vs MOIK
3–0
W
16 Apr
@ Baku Sportinq
0–0
D
0.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qabala and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Qabala or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Qabala vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Qabala have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Safa Baku 14%.
How many goals will there be in Qabala vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qabala vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Qabala 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Qabala vs Safa Baku?
Qabala vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
