Neftchi Baku 67%Draw 20%Araz 13%Expected goals 1.54 – 0.46
67%
Betarazi pick
Neftchi Baku to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.49 · bookmaker 1.44 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.44Odds
Picks by market
ResultNeftchi Baku to win ✓67% · @1.44
Double chanceNeftchi Baku or draw ✓87% · @1.11
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓54% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗68% · fair 1.48
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗21% · fair 4.78
Neftchi Baku vs Araz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
17:45 WAT, Sunday 23 August: Neftchi Baku v Araz in the Premyer Liqa, played at Palms Sports Arena. In the table, Neftchi Baku are 1st, leading the league, on 24 points after 11 matches; Araz are 12th (in the drop zone) with 4. There are 20 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Neftchi Baku, last 5: WWLWW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Sumqayıt, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Araz, last 5: DWLLW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Imisli FK, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Neftchi Baku, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.7 for Araz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Neftchi Baku 1.5 xG, Araz 0.5 xG – a total near 2.0. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 68%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Neftchi Baku 67%, draw 20%, Araz 13%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.75.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Neftchi Baku to win (67%, odds 1.44). Most likely score in line with that pick: Neftchi Baku 1–0 Araz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Neftchi Baku67%fair 1.49 · @1.44
Draw20%fair 5.06 · @3.60
Araz13%fair 7.58 · @6.00
2.00Expected goals
1.54Neftchi Baku xG
0.46Araz xG
46%Both score
32%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–021%
2–016%
0–014%
1–110%
3–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Neftchi Baku 1.5 – 0.5 Araz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Neftchi Baku to win✓
67%
1.49
1.44
Double chance
Neftchi Baku or draw✓
87%
1.15
1.11
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✓
54%
1.85
1.75
Draw no bet
Neftchi Baku (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.20
–
Asian handicap
Neftchi Baku -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
65%
1.55
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
59%
1.68
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
68%
1.48
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
86%
1.17
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
95%
1.06
–
First team to score
Neftchi Baku to score first✓
67%
1.50
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Neftchi Baku / FT Neftchi Baku✓
40%
2.53
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
21%
4.78
–
Recent results
Neftchi Baku – last 6
WWLWWW
16 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
3–1
W
30 Jul
@ Dinamo Minsk
1–0
W
22 Jul
vs Dinamo Minsk
2–4
L
10 Jul
@ Radnicki NIS
3–0
W
6 Jul
vs FK Partizan
1–0
W
23 May
@ Kapaz
1–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Araz – last 6
DWLLWW
15 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–0
D
23 May
vs Zira
3–2
W
17 Apr
vs Turan
0–3
L
7 Apr
vs Sabah FA
2–4
L
18 Mar
@ Keshla FC
1–0
W
13 Mar
vs Karvan
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Neftchi Baku and Araz.
Our pick is Neftchi Baku to win with a 67% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
On our numbers Neftchi Baku have a 67% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Araz 13%.
How many goals will there be in Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
We expect about 2.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 32% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
Our predicted score is Neftchi Baku 1–0 Araz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.0 goals in total.
When is Neftchi Baku vs Araz?
Neftchi Baku vs Araz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Sunday 23 August 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Palms Sports Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
