Kapaz 41%Draw 24%Şamaxı FK 35%Expected goals 0.99 – 0.87
83%
Betarazi pick
Under 3.5 goals
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.20 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
10/10Rating
1.20Odds
2
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 3.10 – our chance 35% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +7%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKapaz to win ✗41% · @2.25
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · @1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗7% · fair 15.04
Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Şamaxı FK travel to face Kapaz on Friday 4 September in the Premyer Liqa, with Ganja City Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 17:15 WAT. In the table, Kapaz are 6th, upper half, on 17 points after 10 matches; Şamaxı FK are 7th (lower half) with 14. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Kapaz, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Turan, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Şamaxı FK, last 5: DDLLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Qabala, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Head to head
When they last met (26 Apr 2026) it ended Şamaxı FK 2–0 Kapaz.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Kapaz 1.0 xG, Şamaxı FK 0.9 xG – a total near 1.9. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Kapaz 41%, draw 24%, Şamaxı FK 35%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Şamaxı FK to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 35%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (83%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Kapaz 0–0 Şamaxı FK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Kapaz41%fair 2.43 · @2.25
Draw24%fair 4.10 · @2.90
Şamaxı FK35%fair 2.90 · @3.10
1.86Expected goals
0.99Kapaz xG
0.87Şamaxı FK xG
51%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–016%
1–015%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–17%
From our goals model: Kapaz 1.0 – 0.9 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 83% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
On our numbers Kapaz have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Şamaxı FK 35%.
How many goals will there be in Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 1.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Kapaz 0–0 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.9 goals in total.
When is Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK?
Kapaz vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 4 September 2026 at 17:15 (West Africa Time) at Ganja City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
