Sumqayıt 31%Draw 25%Şamaxı FK 44%Expected goals 1.08 – 1.35
75%
Betarazi pick
Either team to win
Strong pick · fair odds 1.33 · Lost ✗
8/10Rating
–Odds
2
Value bet: Şamaxı FK to win @ 2.62 – our chance 44% vs 38% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✗44% · @2.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · fair 1.33
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗55% · fair 1.82
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · fair 1.29
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–1 ✗12% · fair 8.44
Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
16:45 WAT, Saturday 12 September: Sumqayıt v Şamaxı FK in the Premyer Liqa, played at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium. In the table, Sumqayıt are 9th, lower half, on 10 points after 10 matches; Şamaxı FK are 7th (lower half) with 14.
Current form
Sumqayıt, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Turan, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Şamaxı FK, last 5: WDDLL Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Kapaz, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 5. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (13 Mar 2026) it ended Sumqayıt 0–1 Keshla FC.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sumqayıt 1.1 xG, Şamaxı FK 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 44%, GG 45%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sumqayıt 31%, draw 25%, Şamaxı FK 44%.
Price worth noting: Şamaxı FK to win @2.62 – the bookmaker implies 38%, our ratings say 44%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Either team to win (75%). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sumqayıt 0–1 Şamaxı FK. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sumqayıt31%fair 3.21 · @2.62
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @2.75
Şamaxı FK44%fair 2.28 · @2.62
2.43Expected goals
1.08Sumqayıt xG
1.35Şamaxı FK xG
45%Both score
44%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%
From our goals model: Sumqayıt 1.1 – 1.3 Şamaxı FK expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
On our numbers Sumqayıt have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Şamaxı FK 44%.
How many goals will there be in Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 44% likely and both teams score 45% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
Our predicted score is Sumqayıt 0–1 Şamaxı FK, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK?
Sumqayıt vs Şamaxı FK (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Mehdi Huseynzade Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
