Qarabag vs Safa Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Safa Baku travel to face Qarabag on Friday 18 September in the Premyer Liqa, with Tofiq Bahramov Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 16:45 WAT. In the table, Qarabag are 4th, among the top four, on 19 points after 10 matches; Safa Baku are 11th (in the drop zone) with 5. There are 14 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Qarabag, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zira, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.0 conceded per game.
Safa Baku, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Sabah FA, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 3 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Momentum favours Qarabag, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.5 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Qarabag 2.0 xG, Safa Baku 0.7 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 50%, GG 52%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Qarabag 72%, draw 14%, Safa Baku 14%.
GG/NG: GG (52%) at 2.10.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (52%, odds 2.10 – longer than our fair 1.92, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Qarabag 2–1 Safa Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Qarabag72%fair 1.39 · @1.12
Draw14%fair 7.08 · @7.00
Safa Baku14%fair 7.16 · @17.00
2.67Expected goals
2.01Qarabag xG
0.66Safa Baku xG
52%Both score
50%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–014%
1–014%
3–09%
2–19%
1–19%
0–07%
From our goals model: Qarabag 2.0 – 0.7 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Qarabag to win✓
72%
1.39
1.12
Double chance
Qarabag or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
52%
1.92
2.10 ▲
Draw no bet
Qarabag (draw no bet)✓
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Qarabag -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
75%
1.34
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
50%
2.00
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
87%
1.15
–
First team to score
Qarabag to score first✓
70%
1.43
–
Half-time result
Qarabag ahead at half-time✗
49%
2.05
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Qarabag / FT Qarabag✗
45%
2.23
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.83
–
Recent results
Qarabag – last 6
DWWLWW
13 Sep
@ Zira
1–1
D
6 Sep
vs Araz
3–2
W
31 Aug
@ Sumqayıt
1–0
W
27 Aug
vs Twente
1–2
L
20 Aug
@ Twente
1–0
W
17 Aug
vs Şamaxı FK
3–1
W
1.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLWLL
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
16 Aug
@ Zira
0–2
L
22 May
@ Zaqatala
1–2
L
0.5Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Qarabag and Safa Baku.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.10.
Who will win Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Qarabag have a 72% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Safa Baku 14%.
How many goals will there be in Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 50% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Qarabag 2–1 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Qarabag vs Safa Baku?
Qarabag vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 16:45 (West Africa Time) at Tofiq Bahramov Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
