Şamaxı FK 63%Draw 22%Safa Baku 14%Expected goals 1.57 – 0.57
63%
Betarazi pick
Şamaxı FK to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.58 · bookmaker 1.75 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.75Odds
Picks by market
ResultŞamaxı FK to win ✓63% · @1.75
Double chanceŞamaxı FK or draw ✓86% · @1.18
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.73
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.13
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
12:00 WAT, Friday 16 October: Şamaxı FK v Safa Baku in the Premyer Liqa, played at Shamakhi City Stadium. In the table, Şamaxı FK are 7th, lower half, on 14 points after 11 matches; Safa Baku are 11th (in the drop zone) with 5.
Current form
Şamaxı FK, last 5: DWDWD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zira, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.7 conceded per game.
Safa Baku, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Turan, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Momentum favours Şamaxı FK, collecting 1.7 points per game to 0.5 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Şamaxı FK 1.6 xG, Safa Baku 0.6 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 64%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Şamaxı FK 63%, draw 22%, Safa Baku 14%.
Lower-risk option: Şamaxı FK or draw (86%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.73.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Şamaxı FK to win (63%, odds 1.75 – longer than our fair 1.58, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Şamaxı FK63%fair 1.58 · @1.75
Draw22%fair 4.47 · @3.25
Safa Baku14%fair 6.99 · @4.33
2.14Expected goals
1.57Şamaxı FK xG
0.57Safa Baku xG
51%Both score
36%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–012%
1–110%
2–18%
3–08%
From our goals model: Şamaxı FK 1.6 – 0.6 Safa Baku expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Şamaxı FK to win✓
63%
1.58
1.75 ▲
Double chance
Şamaxı FK or draw✓
86%
1.17
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
51%
1.95
1.73
Draw no bet
Şamaxı FK (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.23
–
Asian handicap
Şamaxı FK -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.61
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.20
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Şamaxı FK to score first✗
65%
1.54
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
46%
2.17
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Şamaxı FK / FT Şamaxı FK✗
38%
2.63
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.13
–
Recent results
Şamaxı FK – last 6
DWDWDD
10 Oct
@ Zira
1–1
D
20 Sep
vs Araz
2–1
W
12 Sep
@ Sumqayıt
1–1
D
4 Sep
@ Kapaz
4–1
W
29 Aug
@ Qabala
0–0
D
23 Aug
@ Turan
0–0
D
1.3Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLLLW
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
22 Aug
@ Qabala
1–0
W
0.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Şamaxı FK and Safa Baku.
What is the prediction for Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Our pick is Şamaxı FK to win with a 63% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
On our numbers Şamaxı FK have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Safa Baku 14%.
How many goals will there be in Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 36% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Our predicted score is Şamaxı FK 1–0 Safa Baku, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku?
Şamaxı FK vs Safa Baku (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Friday 16 October 2026 at 12:00 (West Africa Time) at Shamakhi City Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
