Value bet: Kapaz to win @ 2.30 – our chance 46% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +6%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultKapaz to win ✓46% · @2.30
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.35
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓57% · @1.75
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✓8% · fair 11.88
Safa Baku vs Kapaz: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
13:30 WAT, Saturday 24 October: Safa Baku v Kapaz in the Premyer Liqa, played at ASK Arena. In the table, Safa Baku are 11th, in the drop zone, on 5 points after 11 matches; Kapaz are 6th (upper half) with 17. There are 12 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Safa Baku, last 5: LLLLL Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Şamaxı FK, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Kapaz, last 5: DWDWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Zira, at home. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Kapaz, collecting 1.8 points per game to 0.0 for Safa Baku.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Safa Baku 1.0 xG, Kapaz 1.3 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 40%, GG 57%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Safa Baku 31%, draw 23%, Kapaz 46%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.75.
Price worth noting: Kapaz to win @2.30 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 46%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (57%, odds 1.75). Most likely score in line with that pick: Safa Baku 1–1 Kapaz. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Safa Baku31%fair 3.23 · @2.80
Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.10
Kapaz46%fair 2.17 · @2.30
2.27Expected goals
0.98Safa Baku xG
1.29Kapaz xG
57%Both score
40%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–113%
1–113%
0–010%
1–010%
0–29%
1–28%
From our goals model: Safa Baku 1.0 – 1.3 Kapaz expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Kapaz to win✓
46%
2.17
2.30 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.30
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
57%
1.74
1.75
Draw no bet
Kapaz (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Safa Baku +1 (Asian handicap)
74%
1.35
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.51
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.09
–
First team to score
Kapaz to score first
51%
1.96
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
46%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Kapaz / FT Kapaz✗
25%
3.97
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✓
8%
11.88
–
Recent results
Safa Baku – last 6
LLLLLL
16 Oct
@ Şamaxı FK
2–3
L
11 Oct
vs Turan
0–1
L
18 Sep
@ Qarabag
0–1
L
14 Sep
vs Sabah FA
0–3
L
5 Sep
@ Neftchi Baku
1–4
L
29 Aug
vs Imisli FK
0–1
L
0.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Kapaz – last 6
DWDWLW
18 Oct
vs Zira
1–1
D
9 Oct
@ Araz
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Sumqayıt
1–1
D
12 Sep
vs Qabala
1–0
W
4 Sep
vs Şamaxı FK
1–4
L
30 Aug
vs Turan
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Safa Baku and Kapaz.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 57% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.75.
Who will win Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
On our numbers Safa Baku have a 31% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Kapaz 46%.
How many goals will there be in Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 40% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
Our predicted score is Safa Baku 1–1 Kapaz, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Safa Baku vs Kapaz?
Safa Baku vs Kapaz (Premyer Liqa) kicks off on Saturday 24 October 2026 at 13:30 (West Africa Time) at ASK Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
