Value bet: Alvarado to win @ 3.50 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultVilla Mitre to win ✗43% · @2.15
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.36
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · @1.44
GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓73% · @1.33
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.75
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Alvarado travel to face Villa Mitre on Sunday 16 August in the Torneo Federal A, with Estadio El Fortin the venue – the ball rolls at 19:30 WAT. In the table, Villa Mitre are 16th, upper half, on 23 points after 16 matches; Alvarado are 5th (upper half) with 27.
Current form
Villa Mitre, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Olimpo Bahia Blanca, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Alvarado, last 5: WWDWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Huracan Las Heras, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 5 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Alvarado, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Villa Mitre.
Head to head
When they last met (28 Jun 2026) it ended Villa Mitre 1–0 Alvarado.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Villa Mitre 0.9 xG, Alvarado 0.7 xG – a total near 1.7. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 73%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Villa Mitre 43%, draw 25%, Alvarado 32%.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.44.
Price worth noting: Alvarado to win @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (73%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Villa Mitre43%fair 2.33 · @2.15
Draw25%fair 3.98 · @2.75
Alvarado32%fair 3.14 · @3.50
1.69Expected goals
0.95Villa Mitre xG
0.75Alvarado xG
48%Both score
27%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
0–018%
1–017%
0–114%
1–113%
2–08%
2–16%
From our goals model: Villa Mitre 0.9 – 0.7 Alvarado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
On our numbers Villa Mitre have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Alvarado 32%.
How many goals will there be in Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
We expect about 1.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 27% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Our predicted score is Villa Mitre 0–0 Alvarado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.7 goals in total.
When is Villa Mitre vs Alvarado?
Villa Mitre vs Alvarado (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio El Fortin.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
