Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.38 – our chance 51% vs 42% implied by the price (edge +22%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDefensores de Vilelas to win ✓64% · @1.45
Double chanceDefensores de Vilelas or draw ✓85% · @1.06
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗51% · @2.38
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓77% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.06
Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 13 September the Torneo Federal A brings Defensores de Vilelas against Independiente De Chivilcoy at Estadio del Club Defensores De Vilelas. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT. In the table, Defensores de Vilelas are 24th, lower half, on 19 points after 16 matches; Independiente De Chivilcoy are 25th (lower half) with 19. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Defensores de Vilelas, last 5: LDLWD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Atletico Escobar, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Independiente De Chivilcoy, last 5: WDWDL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over El Linqueño, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 0 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensores de Vilelas 1.7 xG, Independiente De Chivilcoy 0.7 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 43%, GG 51%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensores de Vilelas 64%, draw 21%, Independiente De Chivilcoy 15%.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 2.38.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.38 – the bookmaker implies 42%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (77%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensores de Vilelas64%fair 1.56 · @1.45
Draw21%fair 4.80 · @3.50
Independiente De Chivilcoy15%fair 6.62 · @7.00
2.38Expected goals
1.72Defensores de Vilelas xG
0.66Independiente De Chivilcoy xG
51%Both score
43%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–016%
2–014%
1–111%
0–09%
2–19%
3–08%
From our goals model: Defensores de Vilelas 1.7 – 0.7 Independiente De Chivilcoy expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Defensores de Vilelas to win✓
64%
1.56
1.45
Double chance
Defensores de Vilelas or draw✓
85%
1.18
1.06
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
51%
1.95
2.38 ▲
Draw no bet
Defensores de Vilelas (draw no bet)✓
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Defensores de Vilelas -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
69%
1.45
1.36
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
57%
1.75
1.65
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
77%
1.29
1.22
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.07
First team to score
Defensores de Vilelas to score first✓
66%
1.53
–
Half-time result
Defensores de Vilelas ahead at half-time✓
44%
2.29
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Defensores de Vilelas / FT Defensores de Vilelas✓
39%
2.55
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.06
–
Recent results
Defensores de Vilelas – last 6
LDLWDW
7 Sep
@ Atletico Escobar
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs El Linqueño
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–2
L
12 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
4–3
W
8 Aug
@ Sportivo Las Parejas
0–0
D
3 Aug
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
4–1
W
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Independiente De Chivilcoy – last 6
WDWDLD
6 Sep
vs El Linqueño
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Gimnasia Concepción
0–0
D
23 Aug
vs Tucuman Central
2–0
W
16 Aug
@ Sportivo Las Parejas
0–0
D
12 Aug
vs Sarmiento Resistencia
1–2
L
8 Aug
@ Boca Unidos
1–1
D
0.8Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensores de Vilelas and Independiente De Chivilcoy.
What is the prediction for Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 77% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.
Who will win Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
On our numbers Defensores de Vilelas have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Independiente De Chivilcoy 15%.
How many goals will there be in Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 43% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Our predicted score is Defensores de Vilelas 1–0 Independiente De Chivilcoy, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.
When is Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy?
Defensores de Vilelas vs Independiente De Chivilcoy (Torneo Federal A) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio del Club Defensores De Vilelas.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
