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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Alcione v Novara: numbers & prediction

Coppa Italia Serie C · Italy · Stadio Ernesto Breda

Alcione

LLDLL
0–1
FT

Novara

LWLLW
Alcione 38%Draw 23%Novara 39% Expected goals 1.17 – 1.18
78%
Betarazi pick

Under 3.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.29 · bookmaker 1.22 · Won ✓

9/10Rating
1.22Odds
2

Value bet: Novara to win @ 3.20 – our chance 39% vs 31% implied by the price (edge +23%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultNovara to win ✓39% · @3.20
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @2.00
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78% · @1.22
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.86

Alcione vs Novara: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Alcione welcome Novara to Stadio Ernesto Breda for a Coppa Italia Serie C fixture on Sunday 16 August (20:00 WAT).

Current form

Alcione, last 5: LLDLL Their latest outing: 2–6 defeat to Mantova, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.

Novara, last 5: LWLLW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Virtus Entella, away. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Novara, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.3 for Alcione.

Head to head

When they last met (22 Mar 2026) it ended Novara 3–0 Alcione.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Alcione 1.2 xG, Novara 1.2 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 42%, GG 53%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Alcione 38%, draw 23%, Novara 39%.
  • GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
  • Price worth noting: Novara to win @3.20 – the bookmaker implies 31%, our ratings say 39%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (78%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alcione 1–1 Novara. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Alcione38%fair 2.63 · @2.15
Draw23%fair 4.27 · @3.00
Novara39%fair 2.60 · @3.20
2.36Expected goals
1.17Alcione xG
1.18Novara xG
53%Both score
42%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–111%
1–011%
0–09%
1–28%
2–18%

From our goals model: Alcione 1.2 – 1.2 Novara expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNovara to win ✓39%2.603.20 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77%1.311.30
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗53%1.872.00 ▲
Draw no betNovara (draw no bet) ✓50%1.99–
Asian handicapAlcione +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.57–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗67%1.491.40
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓58%1.721.62
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓78%1.291.22
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓89%1.121.07
First team to scoreNovara to score first ✓45%2.20–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗46%2.19–
Half-time / full-timeHT Novara / FT Novara ✓21%4.87–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%12.86–

Recent results

Alcione – last 6

LLDLLD
30 Jul@ Mantova2–6L
22 Jul@ Torino0–1L
19 Apr@ Virtus Verona1–1D
10 Aprvs Lecco0–2L
22 Mar@ Novara0–3L
13 Marvs Union Brescia0–0D
0.5Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Novara – last 6

LWLLWD
5 Aug@ Virtus Entella1–2L
1 Aug@ Sampdoria2–1W
19 Aprvs Cittadella0–1L
3 Aprvs Lumezzane1–3L
22 Marvs Alcione3–0W
15 Mar@ Lecco0–0D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

22 Mar 2026Novara v Alcione3–0
Alcione vs Novara head-to-head page →

More Coppa Italia Serie C predictions

League hub
FT Dolomiti Bellunesi1 Treviso0 148%2.10X23%3.10229%3.20 1.5–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Juventus U231 Forli1 Pens 2–4 148%2.20X23%3.10229%3.00 1.5–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Bari1 Casarano0 141%2.10X22%3.30237%3.10 1.3–1.3xG O1.5Over 1.5 goals 73%@1.28 ✗
FT Crotone0 Cosenza2 145%2.20X23%3.20232%2.88 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Foggia1 Team Altamura2 129%3.00X23%3.00247%2.25 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Giugliano0 Sorrento0 Pens 2–3 137%2.20X23%3.10240%3.00 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Latina1 Ostia Mare1 Pens 3–0 138%2.05X23%3.10239%3.30 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Lecco0 Desenzano Calvina0 Pens 3–4 163%1.53X23%3.60214%5.50 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Alcione vs Novara?

Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 78% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Alcione vs Novara?

On our numbers Alcione have a 38% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Novara 39%.

How many goals will there be in Alcione vs Novara?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 42% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Alcione vs Novara?

Our predicted score is Alcione 1–1 Novara, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is Alcione vs Novara?

Alcione vs Novara (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.