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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bari v Casarano: numbers & prediction

Coppa Italia Serie C · Italy · Stadio San Nicola

Bari

DWWWL
1–0
FT

Casarano

DLWWW
Bari 41%Draw 22%Casarano 37% Expected goals 1.35 – 1.27
73%
Betarazi pick

Over 1.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.36 · bookmaker 1.28 · Lost ✗

8/10Rating
1.28Odds
2

Value bet: Casarano to win @ 3.10 – our chance 37% vs 32% implied by the price (edge +16%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultBari to win ✓41% · @2.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗59% · @1.80
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 11.89

Bari vs Casarano: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Casarano travel to face Bari on Sunday 16 August in the Coppa Italia Serie C, with Stadio San Nicola the venue – the ball rolls at 20:00 WAT.

Current form

Bari, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Sudtirol, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Casarano, last 5: DLWWW Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Union Brescia, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bari 1.3 xG, Casarano 1.3 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 59%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bari 41%, draw 22%, Casarano 37%.
  • GG/NG: GG (59%) at 1.80.
  • Price worth noting: Casarano to win @3.10 – the bookmaker implies 32%, our ratings say 37%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bari 1–1 Casarano. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bari41%fair 2.45 · @2.10
Draw22%fair 4.60 · @3.30
Casarano37%fair 2.68 · @3.10
2.62Expected goals
1.35Bari xG
1.27Casarano xG
59%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–18%
1–28%
0–07%

From our goals model: Bari 1.3 – 1.3 Casarano expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBari to win ✓41%2.452.10
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78%1.281.25
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✗59%1.711.80 ▲
Draw no betBari (draw no bet) ✓52%1.91–
Asian handicapCasarano +0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗61%1.63–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✗73%1.361.28
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✓51%1.951.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓73%1.371.30
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.161.11
First team to scoreBari to score first ✓48%2.10–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bari / FT Bari ✓22%4.47–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8%11.89–

Recent results

Bari – last 6

DWWWLL
22 May@ Sudtirol0–0D
8 May@ Catanzaro3–2W
1 Mayvs Virtus Entella2–0W
6 Aprvs Modena3–1W
22 Marvs Carrarese0–3L
18 Mar@ Frosinone1–2L
1.5Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Casarano – last 6

DLWWWW
20 May@ Union Brescia0–0D
17 Mayvs Union Brescia0–3L
13 May@ Renate3–0W
6 May@ Cosenza5–1W
6 Aprvs Potenza2–1W
29 Marvs Giugliano2–0W
2.0Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bari and Casarano.

Bari vs Casarano head-to-head page →

More Coppa Italia Serie C predictions

League hub
FT Dolomiti Bellunesi1 Treviso0 148%2.10X23%3.10229%3.20 1.5–1.0xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓
FT Juventus U231 Forli1 Pens 2–4 148%2.20X23%3.10229%3.00 1.5–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 73%@1.30 ✓
FT Alcione0 Novara1 138%2.15X23%3.00239%3.20 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 78%@1.22 ✓
FT Crotone0 Cosenza2 145%2.20X23%3.20232%2.88 1.4–1.1xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 74%@1.28 ✓
FT Foggia1 Team Altamura2 129%3.00X23%3.00247%2.25 1.0–1.3xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 79%@1.20 ✓
FT Giugliano0 Sorrento0 Pens 2–3 137%2.20X23%3.10240%3.00 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 77%@1.22 ✓
FT Latina1 Ostia Mare1 Pens 3–0 138%2.05X23%3.10239%3.30 1.2–1.2xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 76%@1.25 ✓
FT Lecco0 Desenzano Calvina0 Pens 3–4 163%1.53X23%3.60214%5.50 1.8–0.7xG U3.5Under 3.5 goals 75%@1.25 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bari vs Casarano?

Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.

Who will win Bari vs Casarano?

On our numbers Bari have a 41% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Casarano 37%.

How many goals will there be in Bari vs Casarano?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bari vs Casarano?

Our predicted score is Bari 1–1 Casarano, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Bari vs Casarano?

Bari vs Casarano (Coppa Italia Serie C) kicks off on Sunday 16 August 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio San Nicola.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.