Value bet: Derby County U21 to win @ 2.70 – our chance 40% vs 37% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultBurnley U21 to win ✓40% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓71% · @1.36
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓84% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗6% · fair 16.74
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Derby County U21 travel to face Burnley U21 on Friday 18 September in the Premier League 2 Division One, with Lancashire County Ground the venue – the ball rolls at 19:00 WAT. In the table, Burnley U21 are 27th, lower half, on 4 points after 7 matches; Derby County U21 are 18th (lower half) with 8.
Current form
Burnley U21, last 5: LWLLL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Nottingham Forest U21, away. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Derby County U21, last 5: LWDWL Their latest outing: 1–3 defeat to Tottenham Hotspur U21, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.
Head to head
When they last met (23 Feb 2026) it ended Burnley U21 1–1 Derby County U21.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Burnley U21 2.3 xG, Derby County U21 2.3 xG – a total near 4.7. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 84% and GG at 71%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Burnley U21 40%, draw 20%, Derby County U21 40%.
GG/NG: GG (71%) at 1.36.
Price worth noting: Derby County U21 to win @2.70 – the bookmaker implies 37%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (71%, odds 1.36). Most likely score in line with that pick: Burnley U21 2–2 Derby County U21. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Burnley U2140%fair 2.49 · @2.05
Draw20%fair 5.05 · @3.60
Derby County U2140%fair 2.50 · @2.70
4.67Expected goals
2.34Burnley U21 xG
2.33Derby County U21 xG
71%Both score
84%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–27%
2–16%
1–26%
3–25%
2–35%
1–15%
From our goals model: Burnley U21 2.3 – 2.3 Derby County U21 expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.36.
Who will win Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
On our numbers Burnley U21 have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Derby County U21 40%.
How many goals will there be in Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
We expect about 4.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 84% likely and both teams score 71% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Our predicted score is Burnley U21 2–2 Derby County U21, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.7 goals in total.
When is Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21?
Burnley U21 vs Derby County U21 (Premier League 2 Division One) kicks off on Friday 18 September 2026 at 19:00 (West Africa Time) at Lancashire County Ground.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
