Value bet: Asti to win @ 3.40 – our chance 32% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +9%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultAlessandria to win ✓45% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓77% · fair 1.29
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · @1.84
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.92
Alessandria vs Asti: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
14:00 WAT, Sunday 27 September: Alessandria v Asti in the Serie D Girone A, played at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta. In the table, Alessandria are 1st, leading the league, on 30 points after 11 matches; Asti are 10th (lower half) with 14. There are 16 points between them, and the seasons have gone in opposite directions.
Current form
Alessandria, last 3: LWW Their latest outing: 1–4 defeat to Millesimo, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.0 conceded per game.
Asti, last 5: DWWLW Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Valenzana, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Alessandria 1.6 xG, Asti 1.3 xG – a total near 2.9. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 52%, GG 53%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Alessandria 45%, draw 23%, Asti 32%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 1.84.
Price worth noting: Asti to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 32%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Alessandria 1–1 Asti. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Alessandria45%fair 2.20 · @2.05
Draw23%fair 4.42 · @3.25
Asti32%fair 3.13 · @3.40
2.87Expected goals
1.59Alessandria xG
1.29Asti xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
2–19%
1–09%
1–27%
0–17%
2–07%
From our goals model: Alessandria 1.6 – 1.3 Asti expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Alessandria to win✓
45%
2.20
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
77%
1.29
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.88
1.84
Draw no bet
Alessandria (draw no bet)✓
59%
1.70
–
Asian handicap
Asti +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
52%
1.94
1.91
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
69%
1.44
1.29
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
84%
1.19
1.10
First team to score
Alessandria to score first✓
52%
1.92
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
41%
2.47
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Alessandria / FT Alessandria✓
27%
3.76
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.92
–
Recent results
Alessandria – last 3
LWW
16 Sep
@ Millesimo
1–4
L
13 Sep
vs Sestri Levante
2–1
W
6 Sep
@ Valenzana
2–1
W
1.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
100%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Asti – last 6
DWWLWL
20 Sep
vs Valenzana
2–2
D
16 Sep
@ Imperia
2–1
W
12 Sep
vs Gozzano
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Sestri Levante
0–2
L
10 May
@ Cairese
1–0
W
3 May
@ Club Milano
1–4
L
1.3Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Alessandria and Asti.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Alessandria vs Asti?
On our numbers Alessandria have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Asti 32%.
How many goals will there be in Alessandria vs Asti?
We expect about 2.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Alessandria vs Asti?
Our predicted score is Alessandria 1–1 Asti, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.9 goals in total.
When is Alessandria vs Asti?
Alessandria vs Asti (Serie D Girone A) kicks off on Sunday 27 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Giuseppe Moccagatta.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
