Pro Sesto 58%Draw 25%Pontedera 17%Expected goals 2.10 – 1.10
58%
Betarazi pick
Pro Sesto to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.72 · bookmaker 1.85 · Won ✓
5/10Rating
1.85Odds
O2.5
Value bet: Over 2.5 goals @ 2.20 – our chance 52% vs 45% implied by the price (edge +15%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultPro Sesto to win ✓58% · @1.85
Double chancePro Sesto or draw ✓83% · fair 1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗53% · fair 1.90
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.11
Pro Sesto vs Pontedera: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Pro Sesto welcome Pontedera to Stadio Ernesto Breda for a Serie D Girone D fixture on Wednesday 16 September (17:30 WAT). In the table, Pro Sesto are 6th, upper half, on 18 points after 11 matches; Pontedera are 16th (in the drop zone) with 7.
Current form
Pro Sesto, last 5: WLLWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Città di Varese, away. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Pontedera, last 5: LLLLD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Pro Patria, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 3 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Pro Sesto, collecting 1.2 points per game to 0.2 for Pontedera.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Pro Sesto 2.1 xG, Pontedera 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 52% and GG at 53%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Pro Sesto 58%, draw 25%, Pontedera 17%.
Price worth noting: Over 2.5 goals @2.20 – the bookmaker implies 45%, our ratings say 52%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Pro Sesto to win (58%, odds 1.85 – longer than our fair 1.72, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Pro Sesto 2–1 Pontedera. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Pro Sesto58%fair 1.72 · @1.85
Draw25%fair 3.96 · @3.20
Pontedera17%fair 6.00 · @3.80
3.20Expected goals
2.10Pro Sesto xG
1.10Pontedera xG
53%Both score
52%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–09%
3–17%
3–06%
From our goals model: Pro Sesto 2.1 – 1.1 Pontedera expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Pro Sesto to win✓
58%
1.72
1.85 ▲
Double chance
Pro Sesto or draw✓
83%
1.20
–
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
53%
1.90
–
Draw no bet
Pro Sesto (draw no bet)✓
78%
1.29
–
Asian handicap
Pro Sesto -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
60%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
52%
1.91
2.20 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
60%
1.66
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
78%
1.28
–
First team to score
Pro Sesto to score first✓
63%
1.59
–
Half-time result
Pro Sesto ahead at half-time✓
45%
2.23
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Pro Sesto / FT Pro Sesto✓
39%
2.58
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
10%
10.11
–
Recent results
Pro Sesto – last 6
WLLWLD
13 Sep
@ Città di Varese
2–0
W
6 Sep
vs Lentigione
2–3
L
3 May
@ Correggese
0–1
L
26 Apr
vs Tuttocuoio
2–0
W
19 Apr
@ Piacenza
1–3
L
2 Apr
@ Pro Palazzolo
0–0
D
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Pontedera – last 6
LLLLDL
13 Sep
vs Pro Patria
2–3
L
6 Sep
@ Castellanzese
1–3
L
26 Apr
vs Livorno
0–2
L
3 Apr
@ Athletic Carpi
0–2
L
29 Mar
vs Bra
0–0
D
9 Mar
@ Perugia
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Pro Sesto and Pontedera.
What is the prediction for Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Our pick is Pro Sesto to win with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.85.
Who will win Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
On our numbers Pro Sesto have a 58% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Pontedera 17%.
How many goals will there be in Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 52% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Our predicted score is Pro Sesto 2–1 Pontedera, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.
When is Pro Sesto vs Pontedera?
Pro Sesto vs Pontedera (Serie D Girone D) kicks off on Wednesday 16 September 2026 at 17:30 (West Africa Time) at Stadio Ernesto Breda.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
