Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.95 – our chance 60% vs 51% implied by the price (edge +17%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultBenfica to win ✓77% · @1.14
Double chanceBenfica or draw ✓92% · @1.02
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.95
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓75% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗8% · fair 12.09
Benfica vs Lech Poznan: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Lech Poznan travel to face Benfica on Thursday 5 November in the UEFA Europa League, with Estádio da Luz the venue – the ball rolls at 21:00 WAT. In the table, Benfica are 1st, leading the league, on 12 points after 4 matches; Lech Poznan are 35th (in the drop zone) with 1.
Current form
Benfica, last 5: WWWWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Alverca, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Scoring is no problem – 2.8 a game lately.
Lech Poznan, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Wisla Krakow, at home. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Momentum favours Benfica, collecting 3.0 points per game to 1.7 for Lech Poznan.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Benfica 3.0 xG, Lech Poznan 1.0 xG – a total near 3.9. That is an open game on paper: 75% for three or more goals, 60% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Benfica 77%, draw 15%, Lech Poznan 8%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.95.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.95 – the bookmaker implies 51%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (75%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznan. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Benfica77%fair 1.30 · @1.14
Draw15%fair 6.58 · @9.00
Lech Poznan8%fair 12.83 · @15.00
3.95Expected goals
2.99Benfica xG
0.96Lech Poznan xG
60%Both score
75%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–09%
3–09%
2–18%
3–18%
4–06%
4–16%
From our goals model: Benfica 3.0 – 1.0 Lech Poznan expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Benfica to win✓
77%
1.30
1.14
Double chance
Benfica or draw✓
92%
1.08
1.02
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.95 ▲
Draw no bet
Benfica (draw no bet)✓
91%
1.10
–
Asian handicap
Benfica -1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.37
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
1.08
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
75%
1.33
1.28
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
55%
1.81
1.73
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
1.50
First team to score
Benfica to score first✓
74%
1.35
–
Half-time result
Benfica ahead at half-time✓
59%
1.69
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Benfica / FT Benfica✓
55%
1.81
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.09
–
Recent results
Benfica – last 6
WWWWWW
2 Nov
vs Alverca
1–0
W
29 Oct
vs GIL Vicente
4–1
W
26 Oct
@ Santa Clara
2–1
W
22 Oct
@ Omonia Nicosia
4–1
W
15 Oct
vs Celtic
4–1
W
11 Oct
vs Vitória SC
2–0
W
2.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Lech Poznan – last 6
WLWDWL
31 Oct
vs Wisla Krakow
3–1
W
28 Oct
@ Siarka Tarnobrzeg
0–1
L
25 Oct
@ Legia Warszawa
2–1
W
22 Oct
vs Sunderland
1–1
D
18 Oct
vs Korona Kielce
6–1
W
15 Oct
vs Bayer Leverkusen
0–4
L
2.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Benfica and Lech Poznan.
What is the prediction for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
On our numbers Benfica have a 77% chance of winning, the draw 15% and Lech Poznan 8%.
How many goals will there be in Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
We expect about 3.9 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 75% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Our predicted score is Benfica 3–0 Lech Poznan, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.9 goals in total.
When is Benfica vs Lech Poznan?
Benfica vs Lech Poznan (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estádio da Luz.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
