Beşiktaş v Marseille Prediction & Expected Goals (17 Sep) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultBeşiktaş to win ✓63% · @1.75

Double chanceBeşiktaş or draw ✓86% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓51% · @1.55

GoalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗5% · fair 20.06

Beşiktaş vs Marseille: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

On Thursday 17 September the UEFA Europa League brings Beşiktaş against Marseille at Besiktas Park. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Beşiktaş are 8th, upper half, on 7 points after 4 matches; Marseille are 31st (lower half) with 3.

Current form

Beşiktaş, last 5: WWWLL Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Erzurumspor FK, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.3 goals per game.

Marseille, last 5: LLLWL Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to Rennes, away. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.5 conceded per game.

Momentum favours Beşiktaş, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.0 for Marseille.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Beşiktaş 1.2 xG, Marseille 0.3 xG – a total near 1.5. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 81%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Beşiktaş 63%, draw 23%, Marseille 14%.
Lower-risk option: Beşiktaş or draw (86%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (51%) at 1.55.
Price worth noting: Beşiktaş to win @1.75 – the bookmaker implies 57%, our ratings say 63%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Beşiktaş or draw (86%, odds 1.22 – longer than our fair 1.17, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Beşiktaş 1–0 Marseille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Beşiktaş63%fair 1.60 · @1.75

Draw23%fair 4.36 · @3.80

Marseille14%fair 6.93 · @3.90

1.50Expected goals

1.18Beşiktaş xG

0.32Marseille xG

51%Both score

19%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–026%

0–022%

2–015%

1–18%

0–17%

3–06%

From our goals model: Beşiktaş 1.2 – 0.3 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Beşiktaş to win ✓	63%	1.60	1.75 ▲
Double chance	Beşiktaş or draw ✓	86%	1.17	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	51%	1.98	1.55
Draw no bet	Beşiktaş (draw no bet) ✓	81%	1.23	–
Asian handicap	Marseille +1 (Asian handicap) ✗	61%	1.64	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Under 1.5 goals ✗	56%	1.79	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Under 2.5 goals ✗	81%	1.24	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✗	93%	1.07	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✗	98%	1.02	–
First team to score	Beşiktaş to score first	61%	1.64	–
Half-time result	Level at half-time ✓	56%	1.80	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Beşiktaş / FT Beşiktaş ✗	34%	2.96	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	5%	20.06	–

Beşiktaş – last 6

WWWLLW

11 Sep	vs Erzurumspor FK	3–0	W
5 Sep	@ Fenerbahçe	2–1	W
31 Aug	vs Çorum FK	6–2	W
27 Aug	@ Kauno Žalgiris	0–1	L
23 Aug	@ Alanyaspor	0–1	L
20 Aug	vs Kauno Žalgiris	3–0	W

2.3Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

33%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

Marseille – last 6

LLLWLW

11 Sep	@ Rennes	0–1	L
6 Sep	vs Paris FC	2–3	L
30 Aug	@ Monaco	0–2	L
21 Aug	vs Strasbourg	4–0	W
14 Aug	vs Atletico Madrid	1–2	L
9 Aug	vs Athletic Club	3–1	W

1.7Scored / game

1.5Conceded / game

50%Both scored

67%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Benfica	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Bournemouth	4	4	0	0	+9	12
3	Ferencvarosi TC	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Union St. Gilloise	4	3	1	0	+8	10
5	Juventus	4	3	1	0	+7	10
6	Olympiakos Piraeus	4	3	1	0	+3	10
7	Bayer Leverkusen	4	3	0	1	+7	9
8	Beşiktaş	4	2	1	1	+3	7
9	Dinamo Zagreb	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Levski Sofia	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Sunderland	4	2	1	1	0	7
12	NEC Nijmegen	4	2	1	1	-1	7
13	Lyon	4	2	1	1	-1	7
14	AZ Alkmaar	4	2	0	2	+3	6
15	Anderlecht	4	2	0	2	+3	6
16	OFI	4	2	0	2	+1	6
17	Rennes	4	1	3	0	+1	6
18	Omonia Nicosia	4	2	0	2	-1	6
19	Torreense	4	2	0	2	-2	6
20	Real Sociedad	4	1	2	1	+5	5
21	Crystal Palace	4	1	2	1	+3	5
22	Sparta Praha	4	1	1	2	0	4
23	1899 Hoffenheim	4	1	1	2	0	4
24	Sturm Graz	4	1	1	2	-3	4
25	Celje	4	1	1	2	-4	4
26	Red Bull Salzburg	4	1	1	2	-5	4
27	Celta Vigo	4	1	0	3	-2	3
28	AC Milan	4	1	0	3	-3	3
29	Jagiellonia	4	1	0	3	-3	3
30	Plzen	4	1	0	3	-4	3
31	Marseille	4	1	0	3	-4	3
32	Celtic	4	1	0	3	-5	3
33	Hapoel Beer Sheva	4	0	1	3	-7	1
34	Lillestrom	4	0	1	3	-8	1
35	Lech Poznan	4	0	1	3	-10	1
36	Ararat-Armenia	4	0	0	4	-10	0

Team

Pts

+10

-1

-1

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

-2

-3

-3

-4

-4

-5

-7

-8

-10

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

Our pick is Beşiktaş or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

On our numbers Beşiktaş have a 63% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Marseille 14%.

How many goals will there be in Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

We expect about 1.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 19% likely and both teams score 51% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

Our predicted score is Beşiktaş 1–0 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 1.5 goals in total.

When is Beşiktaş vs Marseille?

Beşiktaş vs Marseille (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Besiktas Park.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Beşiktaş v Marseille: numbers & prediction