Value bet: Draw @ 3.40 – our chance 51% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +74%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDraw ✗51% · @3.40
Double chanceUnion St. Gilloise or draw ✓76% · @1.44
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗66% · @1.62
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–2 ✗7% · fair 14.05
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 17 September the UEFA Europa League brings Plzen against Union St. Gilloise at Doosan Arena. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Plzen are 30th, lower half, on 3 points after 4 matches; Union St. Gilloise are 4th (among the top four) with 10.
Current form
Plzen, last 5: LDWDW Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Sigma Olomouc, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Union St. Gilloise, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 5–0 win over Lommel United, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Union St. Gilloise, collecting 2.3 points per game to 1.3 for Plzen.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Plzen 2.2 xG, Union St. Gilloise 2.3 xG – a total near 4.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 83% and GG at 66%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Plzen 24%, draw 51%, Union St. Gilloise 25%.
Lower-risk option: Union St. Gilloise or draw (76%) at 1.44.
GG/NG: GG (66%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Draw @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 51%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Union St. Gilloise or draw (76%, odds 1.44 – longer than our fair 1.31, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Plzen 2–2 Union St. Gilloise. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Plzen24%fair 4.25 · @2.62
Draw51%fair 1.95 · @3.40
Union St. Gilloise25%fair 3.97 · @2.45
4.50Expected goals
2.23Plzen xG
2.27Union St. Gilloise xG
66%Both score
83%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–27%
1–26%
2–16%
1–16%
2–35%
3–25%
From our goals model: Plzen 2.2 – 2.3 Union St. Gilloise expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Draw✗
51%
1.95
3.40 ▲
Double chance
Union St. Gilloise or draw✓
76%
1.31
1.44 ▲
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
66%
1.51
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Union St. Gilloise (draw no bet)✓
52%
1.93
–
Asian handicap
Plzen +1 (Asian handicap)✗
71%
1.41
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
94%
1.07
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
–
First team to score
Union St. Gilloise to score first✓
50%
2.00
–
Half-time result
Union St. Gilloise ahead at half-time✓
35%
2.86
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Union St. Gilloise / FT Union St. Gilloise✓
26%
3.92
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–2✗
7%
14.05
–
Recent results
Plzen – last 6
LDWDWL
13 Sep
vs Sigma Olomouc
2–3
L
9 Sep
@ Hradec Králové
0–0
D
5 Sep
@ Artis
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Slovácko
1–1
D
27 Aug
vs FK Crvena Zvezda
4–1
W
20 Aug
@ FK Crvena Zvezda
0–3
L
1.7Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Union St. Gilloise – last 6
WWWWDD
12 Sep
vs Lommel United
5–0
W
5 Sep
@ Charleroi
3–2
W
2 Sep
@ St. Truiden
3–0
W
30 Aug
vs Anderlecht
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Zulte Waregem
0–0
D
11 Aug
@ BodoGlimt
2–2
D
2.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
33%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Plzen and Union St. Gilloise.
What is the prediction for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our pick is Union St. Gilloise or draw with a 76% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.44.
Who will win Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
On our numbers Plzen have a 24% chance of winning, the draw 51% and Union St. Gilloise 25%.
How many goals will there be in Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 66% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Our predicted score is Plzen 2–2 Union St. Gilloise, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.
When is Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise?
Plzen vs Union St. Gilloise (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 17 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Doosan Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
