Good pick · fair odds 1.50 · bookmaker 1.57 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.57Odds
Picks by market
ResultSturm Graz to win ✗65% · @1.50
Double chanceSturm Graz or draw ✗87% · @1.14
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓78% · @1.17
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.55
Sturm Graz vs Celje: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Sturm Graz welcome Celje to Stadion Graz-Liebenau for a UEFA Europa League fixture on Thursday 5 November (21:00 WAT). In the table, Sturm Graz are 24th, lower half, on 4 points after 4 matches; Celje are 25th (lower half) with 4. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sturm Graz, last 5: DLDWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Wolfsberger AC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game.
Celje, last 5: WDWDD Their latest outing: 4–0 win over Nafta, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.0 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sturm Graz 1.9 xG, Celje 0.7 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 55%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sturm Graz 65%, draw 22%, Celje 13%.
Lower-risk option: Sturm Graz or draw (87%) at 1.14.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 1.67.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (66%, odds 1.57 – longer than our fair 1.50, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sturm Graz65%fair 1.54 · @1.50
Draw22%fair 4.46 · @4.33
Celje13%fair 7.97 · @6.00
2.64Expected goals
1.92Sturm Graz xG
0.72Celje xG
56%Both score
55%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–014%
2–013%
1–110%
2–19%
3–08%
0–07%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.9 – 0.7 Celje expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Sturm Graz to win✗
65%
1.54
1.50
Double chance
Sturm Graz or draw✗
87%
1.14
1.14
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
56%
1.78
1.67
Draw no bet
Sturm Graz (draw no bet)✗
84%
1.19
–
Asian handicap
Sturm Graz -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
78%
1.29
1.17
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
55%
1.83
1.57
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
66%
1.50
1.57
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
1.22
First team to score
Sturm Graz to score first
67%
1.48
–
Half-time result
Sturm Graz ahead at half-time✗
47%
2.15
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Sturm Graz / FT Sturm Graz✗
42%
2.38
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.55
–
Recent results
Sturm Graz – last 6
DLDWWL
1 Nov
@ Wolfsberger AC
1–1
D
29 Oct
@ Austria Lustenau
2–3
L
25 Oct
vs Ried
2–2
D
22 Oct
vs Marseille
1–0
W
18 Oct
vs Grazer AK
6–1
W
15 Oct
@ Bournemouth
0–3
L
2.0Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Celje – last 6
WDWDDL
1 Nov
vs Nafta
4–0
W
28 Oct
@ Olimpija Ljubljana
1–1
D
25 Oct
@ Korotan Prevalje
2–0
W
22 Oct
vs Red Bull Salzburg
2–2
D
18 Oct
@ Maribor
0–0
D
15 Oct
vs Omonia Nicosia
0–3
L
1.5Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Celje.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 66% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.57.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Celje?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 65% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Celje 13%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Celje?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 55% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–0 Celje, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Celje?
Sturm Graz vs Celje (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 5 November 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
