Value bet: Sturm Graz to win @ 3.40 – our chance 37% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +24%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMarseille to win ✗42% · @2.05
Double chanceEither team to win ✓78% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗58% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.75
Sturm Graz vs Marseille: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 22 October the UEFA Europa League brings Sturm Graz against Marseille at Stadion Graz-Liebenau. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, Sturm Graz are 24th, lower half, on 4 points after 4 matches; Marseille are 31st (lower half) with 3. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Sturm Graz, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 6–1 win over Grazer AK, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Marseille, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 5–2 win over Angers, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 1.7 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Sturm Graz, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Marseille.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Sturm Graz 1.1 xG, Marseille 1.2 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 58%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Sturm Graz 37%, draw 22%, Marseille 42%.
GG/NG: GG (58%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Sturm Graz to win @3.40 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (58%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Sturm Graz37%fair 2.74 · @3.40
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @3.40
Marseille42%fair 2.39 · @2.05
2.25Expected goals
1.07Sturm Graz xG
1.18Marseille xG
58%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–112%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–27%
From our goals model: Sturm Graz 1.1 – 1.2 Marseille expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Marseille to win✗
42%
2.39
2.05
Double chance
Either team to win✓
78%
1.28
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
58%
1.73
1.62
Draw no bet
Marseille (draw no bet)✗
53%
1.87
–
Asian handicap
Sturm Graz +0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Marseille to score first✗
47%
2.13
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
47%
2.14
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Marseille / FT Marseille✗
22%
4.59
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.75
–
Recent results
Sturm Graz – last 6
WLWWLD
18 Oct
vs Grazer AK
6–1
W
15 Oct
@ Bournemouth
0–3
L
10 Oct
@ Austria Vienna
2–0
W
2 Oct
vs Floridsdorfer AC
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Red Bull Salzburg
0–3
L
16 Sep
vs Rennes
0–0
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Marseille – last 6
WLWLLL
18 Oct
@ Angers
5–2
W
15 Oct
vs Olympiakos Piraeus
0–1
L
11 Oct
@ Estac Troyes
2–0
W
20 Sep
vs Paris Saint Germain
1–2
L
17 Sep
@ Beşiktaş
1–4
L
11 Sep
@ Rennes
0–1
L
1.5Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Sturm Graz and Marseille.
What is the prediction for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 58% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
On our numbers Sturm Graz have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marseille 42%.
How many goals will there be in Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 58% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Our predicted score is Sturm Graz 1–1 Marseille, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Sturm Graz vs Marseille?
Sturm Graz vs Marseille (UEFA Europa League) kicks off on Thursday 22 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Graz-Liebenau.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
