Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · @1.95
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗81% · fair 1.24
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗18% · fair 5.48
Atalanta vs Pafos: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the UEFA Europa Conference League brings Atalanta against Pafos at New Balance Arena. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Atalanta are 16th, upper half, on 4 points after 3 matches; Pafos are 30th (lower half) with 1. Only 3 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Atalanta, last 5: WLLLW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Venezia, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Pafos, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–1 win over Anorthosis, away. Away from home the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Pafos, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.5 for Atalanta.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atalanta 1.7 xG, Pafos 0.5 xG – a total near 2.3. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 39%, GG 46%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atalanta 68%, draw 20%, Pafos 12%.
GG/NG: NG (54%) at 1.95.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atalanta to win (68%, odds 1.35). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atalanta 1–0 Pafos. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atalanta68%fair 1.47 · @1.35
Draw20%fair 4.92 · @4.80
Pafos12%fair 8.65 · @8.50
2.25Expected goals
1.73Atalanta xG
0.52Pafos xG
46%Both score
39%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–018%
2–016%
0–011%
1–19%
3–09%
2–18%
From our goals model: Atalanta 1.7 – 0.5 Pafos expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atalanta to win✓
68%
1.47
1.35
Double chance
Atalanta or draw✓
88%
1.13
1.08
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
54%
1.86
1.95
Draw no bet
Atalanta (draw no bet)✓
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Atalanta -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
66%
1.52
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
61%
1.64
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
81%
1.24
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
92%
1.08
–
First team to score
Atalanta to score first✓
69%
1.45
–
Half-time result
Atalanta ahead at half-time✓
46%
2.19
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atalanta / FT Atalanta✓
42%
2.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
18%
5.48
–
Recent results
Atalanta – last 6
WLLLWW
12 Oct
vs Venezia
3–1
W
20 Sep
@ Juventus
0–2
L
12 Sep
vs Cagliari
1–2
L
5 Sep
@ AS Roma
1–2
L
31 Aug
vs Bologna
1–0
W
27 Aug
@ Hapoel Tel Aviv
1–0
W
1.2Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Pafos – last 6
WLWDWW
11 Oct
@ Anorthosis
3–1
W
18 Sep
vs AEL
0–2
L
13 Sep
@ AEK Larnaca
1–0
W
7 Sep
vs Olympiakos
0–0
D
3 Sep
@ Omonia Nicosia
1–0
W
30 Aug
@ Karmiotissa
3–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atalanta and Pafos.
Our pick is Atalanta to win with a 68% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.35.
Who will win Atalanta vs Pafos?
On our numbers Atalanta have a 68% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Pafos 12%.
How many goals will there be in Atalanta vs Pafos?
We expect about 2.3 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 39% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atalanta vs Pafos?
Our predicted score is Atalanta 1–0 Pafos, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.3 goals in total.
When is Atalanta vs Pafos?
Atalanta vs Pafos (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at New Balance Arena.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
