HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Thursday 15 October the UEFA Europa Conference League brings HNK Hajduk Split against Ajax at Stadion Poljud. Kick-off: 17:45 WAT. In the table, HNK Hajduk Split are 13th, upper half, on 6 points after 3 matches; Ajax are 11th (upper half) with 6. They are level on points, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
HNK Hajduk Split, last 5: WLWWW Their latest outing: 2–1 win over Dinamo Zagreb, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Ajax, last 5: DDWWL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with NEC Nijmegen, at home. Scoring is no problem – 3.0 a game lately.
Momentum favours HNK Hajduk Split, collecting 2.5 points per game to 1.8 for Ajax.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give HNK Hajduk Split 1.9 xG, Ajax 3.3 xG – a total near 5.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 89% and GG at 70%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – HNK Hajduk Split 16%, draw 24%, Ajax 60%.
Lower-risk option: Ajax or draw (84%) at 1.18.
GG/NG: GG (70%) at 1.62.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (70%, odds 1.62 – longer than our fair 1.42, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Ajax. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
HNK Hajduk Split16%fair 6.09 · @4.80
Draw24%fair 4.23 · @4.00
Ajax60%fair 1.67 · @1.62
5.20Expected goals
1.93HNK Hajduk Split xG
3.27Ajax xG
70%Both score
89%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–36%
2–36%
1–26%
2–25%
1–45%
2–45%
From our goals model: HNK Hajduk Split 1.9 – 3.3 Ajax expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Ajax to win✗
60%
1.67
1.62
Double chance
Ajax or draw✗
84%
1.20
1.18
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
70%
1.42
1.62 ▲
Draw no bet
Ajax (draw no bet)✗
78%
1.27
–
Asian handicap
Ajax -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
97%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
89%
1.12
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
59%
1.68
–
First team to score
Ajax to score first✗
62%
1.60
–
Half-time result
Ajax ahead at half-time✗
51%
1.97
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Ajax / FT Ajax✗
43%
2.30
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–3✗
6%
16.13
–
Recent results
HNK Hajduk Split – last 6
WLWWWW
10 Oct
vs Dinamo Zagreb
2–1
W
20 Sep
@ HNK Rijeka
0–3
L
13 Sep
vs NK Slaven Belupo
1–0
W
8 Sep
@ Vardarac
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Rudes
4–0
W
31 Aug
vs NK Lokomotiva Zagreb
2–0
W
1.8Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
17%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Ajax – last 6
DDWWLW
10 Oct
vs NEC Nijmegen
1–1
D
19 Sep
vs Excelsior
2–2
D
15 Sep
vs Willem II
5–1
W
12 Sep
@ Fortuna Sittard
5–1
W
5 Sep
vs PSV Eindhoven
1–3
L
30 Aug
@ Telstar
4–0
W
3.0Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
83%Both scored
83%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between HNK Hajduk Split and Ajax.
What is the prediction for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 70% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.
Who will win HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
On our numbers HNK Hajduk Split have a 16% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Ajax 60%.
How many goals will there be in HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
We expect about 5.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 89% likely and both teams score 70% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
Our predicted score is HNK Hajduk Split 1–3 Ajax, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.2 goals in total.
When is HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax?
HNK Hajduk Split vs Ajax (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Stadion Poljud.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
