Riga v Kairat Almaty Prediction & Expected Goals (15 Oct) – Odds, Stats, Pick

Picks by market

ResultRiga to win ✗55% · @1.91

Double chanceRiga or draw ✓81% · @1.22

Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓54% · @1.85

GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓80% · fair 1.25

Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗10% · fair 10.08

Riga vs Kairat Almaty: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Kairat Almaty travel to face Riga on Thursday 15 October in the UEFA Europa Conference League, with Skonto the venue – the ball rolls at 17:45 WAT. In the table, Riga are 19th, lower half, on 3 points after 3 matches; Kairat Almaty are 27th (lower half) with 2. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.

Current form

Riga, last 5: WWWWD Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Tukums, away. Goals for and against: 1.5 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Kairat Almaty, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Zhetysu, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.8 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Riga 1.9 xG, Kairat Almaty 1.1 xG – a total near 3.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 58% and GG at 54%.

Markets worth a look

1X2 according to our numbers – Riga 55%, draw 26%, Kairat Almaty 19%.
Lower-risk option: Riga or draw (81%) at 1.22.
GG/NG: GG (54%) at 1.85.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Riga or draw (81%, odds 1.22). Most likely score in line with that pick: Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Riga55%fair 1.81 · @1.91

Draw26%fair 3.85 · @3.25

Kairat Almaty19%fair 5.36 · @4.00

3.00Expected goals

1.93Riga xG

1.07Kairat Almaty xG

54%Both score

58%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–110%

2–110%

1–010%

2–09%

3–16%

3–06%

From our goals model: Riga 1.9 – 1.1 Kairat Almaty expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

Market	Most likely	Chance	Fair odds	Bookmaker
Match result	Riga to win ✗	55%	1.81	1.91 ▲
Double chance	Riga or draw ✓	81%	1.23	1.22
Both teams to score	Both teams to score ✓	54%	1.84	1.85
Draw no bet	Riga (draw no bet)	75%	1.34	–
Asian handicap	Kairat Almaty +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓	66%	1.51	–
Over/under 1.5 goals	Over 1.5 goals ✓	80%	1.25	–
Over/under 2.5 goals	Over 2.5 goals ✗	58%	1.73	–
Over/under 3.5 goals	Under 3.5 goals ✓	65%	1.55	–
Over/under 4.5 goals	Under 4.5 goals ✓	82%	1.23	–
First team to score	Riga to score first	61%	1.64	–
Half-time result	Riga ahead at half-time ✗	42%	2.37	–
Half-time / full-time	HT Riga / FT Riga ✗	36%	2.77	–
Correct score	Correct score 2–1 ✗	10%	10.08	–

Riga – last 6

WWWWDD

10 Oct	@ Tukums	2–0	W
3 Oct	@ Aris	2–1	W
19 Sep	@ FS Jelgava	1–0	W
15 Sep	@ Super Nova	1–0	W
11 Sep	vs Auda	2–2	D
7 Sep	vs BFC Daugavpils	1–1	D

1.5Scored / game

0.7Conceded / game

50%Both scored

33%Over 2.5

Kairat Almaty – last 6

WLLWWW

10 Oct	vs Zhetysu	1–0	W
17 Sep	@ FC Astana	0–1	L
13 Sep	vs FK Tobol Kostanay	1–4	L
9 Sep	vs Zhenys	3–0	W
5 Sep	@ Kaspiy	3–0	W
31 Aug	@ Yelimay Semey	2–0	W

1.7Scored / game

0.8Conceded / game

17%Both scored

50%Over 2.5

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Lugano	3	3	0	0	+7	9
2	Panathinaikos	3	3	0	0	+6	9
3	Twente	3	3	0	0	+6	9
4	Monaco	3	3	0	0	+6	9
5	Brighton	3	2	1	0	+5	7
6	Brann	3	2	1	0	+4	7
7	FC Copenhagen	3	2	1	0	+4	7
8	Universitatea Craiova	3	2	1	0	+4	7
9	Mjallby AIF	3	2	1	0	+4	7
10	St. Truiden	3	2	1	0	+3	7
11	Ajax	3	2	0	1	+6	6
12	Trabzonspor	3	2	0	1	+3	6
13	HNK Hajduk Split	3	2	0	1	+1	6
14	SC Freiburg	3	2	0	1	-1	6
15	FK Crvena Zvezda	3	1	1	1	0	4
16	Atalanta	3	1	1	1	0	4
17	SC Braga	3	1	1	1	-1	4
18	Gent	3	1	1	1	-1	4
19	Riga	3	0	3	0	0	3
20	FC Thun	3	1	0	2	0	3
21	Borac Banja Luka	3	1	0	2	-1	3
22	Lincoln Red Imps FC	3	1	0	2	-3	3
23	FK Jablonec	3	0	2	1	-1	2
24	Aarhus	3	0	2	1	-1	2
25	FC Nordsjaelland	3	0	2	1	-2	2
26	Egnatia Rrogozhinë	3	0	2	1	-2	2
27	Kairat Almaty	3	0	2	1	-4	2
28	CSKA Sofia	3	0	1	2	-2	1
29	FC Iberia 1999	3	0	1	2	-3	1
30	Pafos	3	0	1	2	-4	1
31	Getafe	3	0	1	2	-4	1
32	Heart Of Midlothian	3	0	1	2	-4	1
33	KuPS	3	0	1	2	-4	1
34	FC Midtjylland	3	0	1	2	-6	1
35	Inter Club d'Escaldes	3	0	0	3	-5	0
36	Kauno Žalgiris	3	0	0	3	-10	0

Team

Pts

Universitatea Craiova

-1

-1

-1

-1

-3

-1

-1

-2

-2

-4

-2

-3

-4

-4

-4

-4

-6

Inter Club d'Escaldes

-5

Kauno Žalgiris

-10

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?

Our pick is Riga or draw with a 81% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.22.

Who will win Riga vs Kairat Almaty?

On our numbers Riga have a 55% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Kairat Almaty 19%.

How many goals will there be in Riga vs Kairat Almaty?

We expect about 3.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 58% likely and both teams score 54% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Riga vs Kairat Almaty?

Our predicted score is Riga 1–1 Kairat Almaty, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.0 goals in total.

When is Riga vs Kairat Almaty?

Riga vs Kairat Almaty (UEFA Europa Conference League) kicks off on Thursday 15 October 2026 at 17:45 (West Africa Time) at Skonto.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.

Riga v Kairat Almaty: numbers & prediction