Atlético CP 64%Draw 22%Lagoa 14%Expected goals 2.70 – 1.30
64%
Betarazi pick
Atlético CP to win
Good pick · fair odds 1.55 · bookmaker 1.33 · Won ✓
6/10Rating
1.33Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.05 – our chance 59% vs 49% implied by the price (edge +20%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultAtlético CP to win ✓64% · @1.33
Double chanceAtlético CP or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓59% · @2.05
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.31
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.52
Atlético CP vs Lagoa: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
15:30 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Atlético CP v Lagoa in the Taça De Portugal.
Current form
Atlético CP, last 5: LWWWD Their latest outing: 0–1 defeat to CF Os Belenenses, away. Scoring is no problem – 2.0 a game lately. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Lagoa, last 5: DWLDD Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with FC Serpa, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Momentum favours Atlético CP, collecting 2.2 points per game to 1.0 for Lagoa.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Atlético CP 2.7 xG, Lagoa 1.3 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 76% and GG at 59%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Atlético CP 64%, draw 22%, Lagoa 14%.
GG/NG: GG (59%) at 2.05.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.05 – the bookmaker implies 49%, our ratings say 59%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Atlético CP to win (64%, odds 1.33). Most likely score in line with that pick: Atlético CP 2–1 Lagoa. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Atlético CP64%fair 1.55 · @1.33
Draw22%fair 4.62 · @4.00
Lagoa14%fair 7.22 · @9.00
4.00Expected goals
2.70Atlético CP xG
1.30Lagoa xG
59%Both score
76%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
2–19%
3–18%
2–07%
1–16%
3–06%
2–26%
From our goals model: Atlético CP 2.7 – 1.3 Lagoa expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Atlético CP to win✓
64%
1.55
1.33
Double chance
Atlético CP or draw✓
86%
1.16
1.10
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
59%
1.71
2.05 ▲
Draw no bet
Atlético CP (draw no bet)✓
82%
1.21
–
Asian handicap
Atlético CP -0.5 (Asian handicap)✓
67%
1.49
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
91%
1.10
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✓
76%
1.31
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✓
57%
1.77
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
First team to score
Atlético CP to score first✓
66%
1.51
–
Half-time result
Atlético CP ahead at half-time✓
51%
1.96
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Atlético CP / FT Atlético CP✓
45%
2.22
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.52
–
Recent results
Atlético CP – last 6
LWWWDW
13 Sep
@ CF Os Belenenses
0–1
L
6 Sep
vs Oliveirense
3–1
W
29 Aug
@ Olímpico do Montijo
4–0
W
22 Aug
@ SC Covilha
3–0
W
15 Aug
vs Mafra
1–1
D
8 Aug
@ Lusitano Évora 1911
1–0
W
2.0Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Lagoa – last 6
DWLDDL
13 Sep
vs FC Serpa
0–0
D
6 Sep
@ Santa Clara B
2–1
W
23 Aug
@ Imortal Albufeira
0–1
L
16 Aug
@ Aljustrelense
1–1
D
22 Mar
vs Atlético Malveira
0–0
D
15 Mar
@ FC Alverca II
1–2
L
0.7Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Atlético CP and Lagoa.
Our pick is Atlético CP to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.33.
Who will win Atlético CP vs Lagoa?
On our numbers Atlético CP have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Lagoa 14%.
How many goals will there be in Atlético CP vs Lagoa?
We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 76% likely and both teams score 59% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Atlético CP vs Lagoa?
Our predicted score is Atlético CP 2–1 Lagoa, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.
When is Atlético CP vs Lagoa?
Atlético CP vs Lagoa (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:30 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
Mafra1
Tirsense1
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2