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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Vitória de Sernache v Varzim: numbers & prediction

Taça De Portugal · Portugal

Vitória de Sernache

LLWLD
2–1
FT

Varzim

LLWWW
Vitória de Sernache 14%Draw 25%Varzim 61% Expected goals 1.56 – 2.94
86%
Betarazi pick

Varzim or draw

Very strong pick · fair odds 1.16 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗

10/10Rating
1.20Odds
GG

Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.80 – our chance 62% vs 56% implied by the price (edge +12%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultVarzim to win ✗61% · @1.75
Double chanceVarzim or draw ✗86% · @1.20
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓62% · @1.80
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.21
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7% · fair 13.35

Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

15:00 WAT, Saturday 19 September: Vitória de Sernache v Varzim in the Taça De Portugal.

Current form

Vitória de Sernache, last 5: LLWLD Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Caldas, away. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.

Varzim, last 5: LLWWW Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Vianense, at home. 2.2 goals per outing makes them dangerous.

Momentum favours Varzim, collecting 2.0 points per game to 0.7 for Vitória de Sernache.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Vitória de Sernache 1.6 xG, Varzim 2.9 xG – a total near 4.5. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 83% and GG at 62%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Vitória de Sernache 14%, draw 25%, Varzim 61%.
  • Lower-risk option: Varzim or draw (86%) at 1.20.
  • GG/NG: GG (62%) at 1.80.
  • Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.80 – the bookmaker implies 56%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Varzim or draw (86%, odds 1.20 – longer than our fair 1.16, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Vitória de Sernache 1–2 Varzim. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Vitória de Sernache14%fair 7.26 · @4.00
Draw25%fair 3.99 · @3.20
Varzim61%fair 1.63 · @1.75
4.50Expected goals
1.56Vitória de Sernache xG
2.94Varzim xG
62%Both score
83%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–27%
1–37%
2–26%
2–36%
1–45%
1–15%

From our goals model: Vitória de Sernache 1.6 – 2.9 Varzim expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultVarzim to win ✗61%1.631.75 ▲
Double chanceVarzim or draw ✗86%1.161.20
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓62%1.611.80 ▲
Draw no betVarzim (draw no bet) ✗82%1.23–
Asian handicapVarzim -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗66%1.52–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓94%1.07–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓83%1.21–
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗66%1.52–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓53%1.88–
First team to scoreVarzim to score first ✗65%1.55–
Half-time resultVarzim ahead at half-time ✗51%1.96–
Half-time / full-timeHT Varzim / FT Varzim ✗44%2.25–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗7%13.35–

Recent results

Vitória de Sernache – last 6

LLWLDL
13 Sep@ Caldas0–2L
6 Sepvs CF Os Belenenses1–3L
30 Aug@ Nazarenos3–0W
23 Aug@ Oliveirense2–3L
16 Augvs SC Covilha0–0D
8 Aug@ Mafra0–5L
1.0Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Varzim – last 6

LLWWWW
12 Sepvs Vianense1–2L
5 Sepvs Paredes0–1L
29 Augvs Trofense5–1W
22 Aug@ Pacos Ferreira4–1W
16 Augvs AD Marco 092–1W
9 Aug@ Trofense1–0W
2.2Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Vitória de Sernache and Varzim.

Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim head-to-head page →

More Taça De Portugal predictions

League hub
FT Castro Daire0 Portimonense1 110%7.00X23%4.20267%1.35 2Portimonense to win 67%@1.35 ✓
FT Atlético CP4 Lagoa1 164%1.33X22%4.00214%9.00 2.7–1.3xG 1Atlético CP to win 64%@1.33 ✓
FT Salgueiros1 Feirense0 119%3.80X24%2.90257%1.91 1.1–1.9xG X2Feirense or draw 81%@1.22 ✗
FT Oliveirense1 Penafiel2 133%3.30X23%3.00244%2.05 1.9–2.1xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.73 ✓
FT Mafra1 Tirsense1 Pens 4–3 164%1.50X25%3.60211%5.00 3.3–1.7xG 1Mafra to win 64%@1.50 ✗
FT O Elvas0 União de Leiria2 116%6.00X24%3.40260%1.50 3.6–5.4xG GGBoth teams to score 73%@2.00 ✗
FT Beira-Mar0 CF Os Belenenses2 112%5.00X21%3.30266%1.57 1.5–3.0xG 2CF Os Belenenses to win 66%@1.57 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?

Our pick is Varzim or draw with a 86% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.

Who will win Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?

On our numbers Vitória de Sernache have a 14% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Varzim 61%.

How many goals will there be in Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?

We expect about 4.5 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 83% likely and both teams score 62% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?

Our predicted score is Vitória de Sernache 1–2 Varzim, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.5 goals in total.

When is Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim?

Vitória de Sernache vs Varzim (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.