Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.50 · Lost ✗
6/10Rating
1.50Odds
GG
Value bet: Both teams to score @ 1.83 – our chance 60% vs 55% implied by the price (edge +10%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultMafra to win ✗64% · @1.50
Double chanceMafra or draw ✓89% · @1.12
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.83
GoalsOver 3.5 goals ✗73% · fair 1.36
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–1 ✗7% · fair 14.49
Mafra vs Tirsense: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Mafra welcome Tirsense for a Taça De Portugal fixture on Saturday 19 September (18:00 WAT).
Current form
Mafra, last 5: LWDLD Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Oliveirense, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game.
Tirsense, last 5: WLWWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Brito, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Tirsense, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Mafra.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Mafra 3.3 xG, Tirsense 1.7 xG – a total near 5.0. That is an open game on paper: 88% for three or more goals, 60% for GG.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Mafra 64%, draw 25%, Tirsense 11%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.83.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @1.83 – the bookmaker implies 55%, our ratings say 60%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Mafra to win (64%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Mafra 3–1 Tirsense. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Mafra64%fair 1.56 · @1.50
Draw25%fair 4.05 · @3.60
Tirsense11%fair 8.96 · @5.00
5.00Expected goals
3.32Mafra xG
1.68Tirsense xG
60%Both score
88%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
3–17%
2–16%
3–26%
4–16%
2–25%
4–25%
From our goals model: Mafra 3.3 – 1.7 Tirsense expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Mafra to win✗
64%
1.56
1.50
Double chance
Mafra or draw✓
89%
1.13
1.12
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.83 ▲
Draw no bet
Mafra (draw no bet)
85%
1.17
–
Asian handicap
Mafra -1 (Asian handicap)✗
63%
1.60
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
96%
1.04
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
88%
1.14
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Over 3.5 goals✗
73%
1.36
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Over 4.5 goals✗
56%
1.79
–
First team to score
Mafra to score first
66%
1.52
–
Half-time result
Mafra ahead at half-time✗
54%
1.85
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Mafra / FT Mafra✗
48%
2.09
–
Correct score
Correct score 3–1✗
7%
14.49
–
Recent results
Mafra – last 6
LWDLDW
12 Sep
@ Oliveirense
1–2
L
5 Sep
vs SC Covilha
1–0
W
29 Aug
@ Atlético Malveira
2–2
D
22 Aug
@ Lusitano Évora 1911
1–2
L
15 Aug
@ Atlético CP
1–1
D
8 Aug
vs Vitória de Sernache
5–0
W
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Tirsense – last 6
WLWWLW
13 Sep
vs Brito
2–0
W
6 Sep
@ Celoricense
1–2
L
23 Aug
vs Vinhais
3–0
W
16 Aug
@ Rebordosa
1–0
W
29 Jul
vs Varzim
0–1
L
22 Mar
@ Mirandela
1–0
W
1.3Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Mafra and Tirsense.
Our pick is Mafra to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.
Who will win Mafra vs Tirsense?
On our numbers Mafra have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Tirsense 11%.
How many goals will there be in Mafra vs Tirsense?
We expect about 5.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 88% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Mafra vs Tirsense?
Our predicted score is Mafra 3–1 Tirsense, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 5.0 goals in total.
When is Mafra vs Tirsense?
Mafra vs Tirsense (Taça De Portugal) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 18:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Castro Daire0
Portimonense1
Vitória de Sernache2
Varzim1
Atlético CP4
Lagoa1
Salgueiros1
Feirense0
Oliveirense1
Penafiel2
O Elvas0
União de Leiria2
Beira-Mar0
CF Os Belenenses2