Progreso vs Cerro: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Progreso welcome Cerro to Parque Abraham Paladino for a Primera División Apertura fixture on Sunday 13 September (14:00 WAT). In the table, Progreso are 7th, upper half, on 19 points after 13 matches; Cerro are 9th (lower half) with 18. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Progreso, last 5: WLWLL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Albion FC, away. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.5 goals a game.
Cerro, last 5: LWDDL Their latest outing: 0–2 defeat to Cerrito, at home. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Progreso 1.2 xG, Cerro 1.0 xG – a total near 2.2. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 63%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Progreso 43%, draw 24%, Cerro 33%.
GG/NG: GG (53%) at 2.00.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (53%, odds 2.00 – longer than our fair 1.89, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Progreso 1–1 Cerro. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Progreso43%fair 2.34 · @2.30
Draw24%fair 4.13 · @3.00
Cerro33%fair 3.02 · @3.10
2.17Expected goals
1.18Progreso xG
0.99Cerro xG
53%Both score
37%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–013%
1–113%
0–011%
0–111%
2–08%
2–18%
From our goals model: Progreso 1.2 – 1.0 Cerro expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Progreso to win✗
43%
2.34
2.30
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.35
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
53%
1.89
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Progreso (draw no bet)✗
56%
1.78
–
Asian handicap
Cerro +1 (Asian handicap)✓
78%
1.29
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
64%
1.57
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
63%
1.59
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
83%
1.21
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.07
–
First team to score
Progreso to score first✗
48%
2.08
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✗
48%
2.10
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Progreso / FT Progreso✗
23%
4.37
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
8%
12.71
–
Recent results
Progreso – last 6
WLWLLL
7 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–0
W
3 Sep
@ Albion FC
1–2
L
29 Aug
vs Danubio
1–0
W
26 Aug
vs CA River Plate
0–2
L
23 Aug
@ Club Nacional
0–1
L
16 Aug
vs Deportivo Maldonado
0–2
L
0.5Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Cerro – last 6
LWDDLW
10 Sep
vs Cerrito
0–2
L
6 Sep
vs Racing Montevideo
1–0
W
1 Sep
@ Wanderers
1–1
D
29 Aug
@ Boston River
1–1
D
21 Aug
@ Liverpool Montevideo
0–4
L
15 Aug
vs Albion FC
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Progreso and Cerro.
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 53% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.00.
Who will win Progreso vs Cerro?
On our numbers Progreso have a 43% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Cerro 33%.
How many goals will there be in Progreso vs Cerro?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 37% likely and both teams score 53% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Progreso vs Cerro?
Our predicted score is Progreso 1–1 Cerro, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Progreso vs Cerro?
Progreso vs Cerro (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Parque Abraham Paladino.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
