Value bet: Deportivo Maldonado to win @ 2.50 – our chance 43% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultDeportivo Maldonado to win ✗43% · @2.50
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.36
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗50% · @1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓82% · fair 1.23
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 12.39
Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 13 September the Primera División Apertura brings Defensor Sporting against Deportivo Maldonado at Estadio Luis Franzini. Kick-off: 20:00 WAT. In the table, Defensor Sporting are 13th, lower half, on 12 points after 13 matches; Deportivo Maldonado are 4th (among the top four) with 22.
Current form
Defensor Sporting, last 5: DDLDD Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Cerro Largo, away. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Deportivo Maldonado, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 4–1 win over Wanderers, at home. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 4 clean sheets in that run.
Momentum favours Deportivo Maldonado, collecting 2.2 points per game to 0.7 for Defensor Sporting.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Defensor Sporting 1.0 xG, Deportivo Maldonado 1.2 xG – a total near 2.2. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 38%, GG 50%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to stay under 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Defensor Sporting 33%, draw 24%, Deportivo Maldonado 43%.
GG/NG: GG (50%) at 1.91.
Price worth noting: Deportivo Maldonado to win @2.50 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 43%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Both teams to score (50%, odds 1.91). Most likely score in line with that pick: Defensor Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Defensor Sporting33%fair 3.08 · @2.75
Draw24%fair 4.15 · @3.00
Deportivo Maldonado43%fair 2.31 · @2.50
2.22Expected goals
1.00Defensor Sporting xG
1.22Deportivo Maldonado xG
50%Both score
38%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–113%
0–113%
1–011%
0–011%
1–28%
0–28%
From our goals model: Defensor Sporting 1.0 – 1.2 Deportivo Maldonado expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Deportivo Maldonado to win✗
43%
2.31
2.50 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
76%
1.32
1.36
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
50%
1.99
1.91
Draw no bet
Deportivo Maldonado (draw no bet)✗
57%
1.75
–
Asian handicap
Defensor Sporting +1 (Asian handicap)✓
77%
1.30
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✗
65%
1.54
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
62%
1.62
–
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
82%
1.23
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
93%
1.08
–
First team to score
Deportivo Maldonado to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.12
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Deportivo Maldonado / FT Deportivo Maldonado✗
23%
4.26
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
12.39
–
Recent results
Defensor Sporting – last 6
DDLDDL
9 Sep
@ Cerro Largo
1–1
D
6 Sep
@ Central Espanol
1–1
D
29 Aug
vs Atletico Torque
1–3
L
25 Aug
vs Rentistas
0–0
D
22 Aug
@ Cerro Largo
1–1
D
16 Aug
vs Liverpool Montevideo
0–4
L
0.7Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Deportivo Maldonado – last 6
WWWLDW
10 Sep
vs Wanderers
4–1
W
5 Sep
vs Wanderers
2–0
W
2 Sep
@ Cerrito
2–0
W
29 Aug
@ Juventud
0–2
L
22 Aug
vs Penarol
0–0
D
16 Aug
@ Progreso
2–0
W
1.7Scored / game
0.5Conceded / game
17%Both scored
17%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Defensor Sporting and Deportivo Maldonado.
What is the prediction for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our pick is Both teams to score with a 50% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.91.
Who will win Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
On our numbers Defensor Sporting have a 33% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Deportivo Maldonado 43%.
How many goals will there be in Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
We expect about 2.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 38% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Our predicted score is Defensor Sporting 1–1 Deportivo Maldonado, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.2 goals in total.
When is Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado?
Defensor Sporting vs Deportivo Maldonado (Primera División Apertura) kicks off on Sunday 13 September 2026 at 20:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Luis Franzini.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
