Good pick · fair odds 1.61 · bookmaker 1.40 · Lost ✗
5/10Rating
1.40Odds
U2.5
Value bet: Under 2.5 goals @ 2.35 – our chance 53% vs 43% implied by the price (edge +25%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultHemel Hempstead Town to win ✗62% · @1.40
Double chanceHemel Hempstead Town or draw ✓85% · fair 1.18
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗61% · fair 1.64
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓85% · fair 1.18
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗19% · fair 5.18
Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hemel Hempstead Town welcome Wingate & Finchley for a FA Cup fixture on Saturday 19 September (15:00 WAT).
Current form
Hemel Hempstead Town, last 5: DDDLL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Tonbridge Angels, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.
Wingate & Finchley, last 5: WLDLW Their latest outing: 4–3 win over Aveley, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 2.2 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Wingate & Finchley, collecting 1.7 points per game to 1.0 for Hemel Hempstead Town.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hemel Hempstead Town 1.5 xG, Wingate & Finchley 0.5 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 53% and a clean sheet for one side more likely than not.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hemel Hempstead Town 62%, draw 23%, Wingate & Finchley 15%.
Price worth noting: Under 2.5 goals @2.35 – the bookmaker implies 43%, our ratings say 53%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Hemel Hempstead Town to win (62%, odds 1.40). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hemel Hempstead Town 1–0 Wingate & Finchley. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hemel Hempstead Town62%fair 1.61 · @1.40
Draw23%fair 4.41 · @4.50
Wingate & Finchley15%fair 6.66 · @5.50
2.05Expected goals
1.50Hemel Hempstead Town xG
0.55Wingate & Finchley xG
39%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–019%
2–015%
0–013%
1–111%
2–18%
3–07%
From our goals model: Hemel Hempstead Town 1.5 – 0.5 Wingate & Finchley expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hemel Hempstead Town to win✗
62%
1.61
1.40
Double chance
Hemel Hempstead Town or draw✓
85%
1.18
–
Both teams to score
Not both teams to score✗
61%
1.64
–
Draw no bet
Hemel Hempstead Town (draw no bet)
81%
1.24
–
Asian handicap
Hemel Hempstead Town -0.5 (Asian handicap)✗
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
61%
1.65
–
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
53%
1.88
2.35 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
–
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
94%
1.06
–
First team to score
Hemel Hempstead Town to score first
64%
1.57
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
47%
2.11
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hemel Hempstead Town / FT Hemel Hempstead Town✗
37%
2.71
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–0✗
19%
5.18
–
Recent results
Hemel Hempstead Town – last 6
DDDLLW
12 Sep
vs Tonbridge Angels
1–1
D
8 Sep
@ Ebbsfleet United
0–0
D
5 Sep
vs Farnham Town
1–1
D
31 Aug
@ Folkestone Invicta
0–2
L
29 Aug
vs Weston-super-Mare
1–3
L
22 Aug
@ Salisbury
2–1
W
0.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Wingate & Finchley – last 6
WLDLWW
14 Sep
@ Aveley
4–3
W
12 Sep
@ Welling United
1–4
L
5 Sep
vs Felixstowe & Walton Utd
0–0
D
31 Aug
vs Enfield Town
1–4
L
29 Aug
@ Chatham Town
3–2
W
22 Aug
vs Dulwich Hamlet
1–0
W
1.7Scored / game
2.2Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hemel Hempstead Town and Wingate & Finchley.
What is the prediction for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
Our pick is Hemel Hempstead Town to win with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.40.
Who will win Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
On our numbers Hemel Hempstead Town have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Wingate & Finchley 15%.
How many goals will there be in Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 39% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
Our predicted score is Hemel Hempstead Town 1–0 Wingate & Finchley, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley?
Hemel Hempstead Town vs Wingate & Finchley (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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