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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

AFC Emley v Spennymoor Town: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

AFC Emley

LLDDD
0–4
FT

Spennymoor Town

DLLDL
AFC Emley 20%Draw 50%Spennymoor Town 30% Expected goals 1.11 – 1.32
51%
Betarazi pick

Under 2.5 goals

Fair pick · fair odds 1.97 · bookmaker 2.08 · Lost ✗

3/10Rating
2.08Odds
X

Value bet: Draw @ 3.50 – our chance 50% vs 29% implied by the price (edge +75%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗

Picks by market

ResultDraw ✗50% · @3.50
Double chanceSpennymoor Town or draw ✓80% · fair 1.25
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.91
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77% · fair 1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗9% · fair 11.39

AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Spennymoor Town travel to face AFC Emley on Saturday 19 September in the FA Cup – the ball rolls at 15:00 WAT.

Current form

AFC Emley, last 5: LLDDD Their latest outing: 0–4 defeat to Bury, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.8 goals a game.

Spennymoor Town, last 5: DLLDL Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Macclesfield, at home. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 2.3 conceded per game.

Momentum favours AFC Emley, collecting 1.0 points per game to 0.3 for Spennymoor Town.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give AFC Emley 1.1 xG, Spennymoor Town 1.3 xG – a total near 2.4. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 48%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – AFC Emley 20%, draw 50%, Spennymoor Town 30%.
  • Price worth noting: Draw @3.50 – the bookmaker implies 29%, our ratings say 50%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Under 2.5 goals (51%, odds 2.08 – longer than our fair 1.97, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: AFC Emley 1–1 Spennymoor Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

AFC Emley20%fair 5.00 · @3.00
Draw50%fair 2.00 · @3.50
Spennymoor Town30%fair 3.33 · @2.00
2.43Expected goals
1.11AFC Emley xG
1.32Spennymoor Town xG
48%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–113%
0–112%
1–010%
0–09%
1–29%
0–28%

From our goals model: AFC Emley 1.1 – 1.3 Spennymoor Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultDraw ✗50%2.003.50 ▲
Double chanceSpennymoor Town or draw ✓80%1.25–
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✓52%1.91–
Draw no betSpennymoor Town (draw no bet) ✓60%1.67–
Asian handicapAFC Emley +1 (Asian handicap) ✗76%1.32–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓70%1.43–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.972.08 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗77%1.30–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓90%1.11–
First team to scoreSpennymoor Town to score first ✓50%2.02–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✗45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Spennymoor Town / FT Spennymoor Town ✓24%4.17–
Correct scoreCorrect score 0–0 ✗9%11.39–

Recent results

AFC Emley – last 6

LLDDDW
12 Sep@ Bury0–4L
31 Augvs Guiseley AFC0–4L
29 Aug@ Warrington Town2–2D
25 Aug@ Redcar Athletic0–0D
22 Augvs Ashton United1–1D
18 Aug@ Leek Town2–1W
0.8Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Spennymoor Town – last 6

DLLDLL
12 Sepvs Macclesfield1–1D
8 Sepvs Spalding United1–3L
5 Sep@ Hereford1–2L
31 Augvs Hednesford Town1–1D
29 Aug@ Bedford Town1–3L
22 Augvs Oxford City1–4L
1.0Scored / game
2.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between AFC Emley and Spennymoor Town.

AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Bedford Town2 King's Lynn Town1 145%2.15X22%3.30234%2.90 1.6–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 55%@1.73 ✓
FT Brackley Town1 AFC Portchester0 166%1.28X17%4.75217%8.00 2.2–1.0xG 1Brackley Town to win 66%@1.28 ✓
FT Bury5 Workington1 162%1.73X21%3.70217%3.80 2.8–1.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 69%@1.62 ✓
FT Buxton1 Ashton United0 170%1.36X20%4.50210%6.25 3.5–1.6xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 74%@1.57 ✗
FT United of Manchester4 Ossett United1 172%1.28X19%4.7529%8.00 2.5–0.9xG 1United of Manchester to win 72%@1.28 ✓
FT Gorleston3 Bury Town4 112%5.00X23%4.00265%1.50 1.4–2.9xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 72%@1.50 ✓
FT Leamington1 Gainsborough Trinity1 140%2.50X22%3.30238%2.45 2.0–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.67 ✗
FT Merthyr Town1 Truro City1 138%2.55X22%3.25240%2.40 1.3–1.4xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 50%@1.90 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town?

Our pick is Under 2.5 goals with a 51% chance, at bookmaker odds of 2.08.

Who will win AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town?

On our numbers AFC Emley have a 20% chance of winning, the draw 50% and Spennymoor Town 30%.

How many goals will there be in AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town?

We expect about 2.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town?

Our predicted score is AFC Emley 1–1 Spennymoor Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.4 goals in total.

When is AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town?

AFC Emley vs Spennymoor Town (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 19 September 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.