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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Ancona v Fossombrone: numbers & prediction

Coppa Italia Serie D · Italy · Stadio del Conero

Ancona

WDDWL
1–1
FTPens 5–3

Fossombrone

WDLWL
Ancona 64%Draw 22%Fossombrone 14% Expected goals 1.94 – 0.79
64%
Betarazi pick

Ancona to win

Good pick · fair odds 1.56 · bookmaker 1.45 · Lost ✗

6/10Rating
1.45Odds

Picks by market

ResultAncona to win ✗64% · @1.45
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓86% · @1.10
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗54% · fair 1.85
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76% · fair 1.32
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗8% · fair 12.62

Ancona vs Fossombrone: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Ancona welcome Fossombrone to Stadio del Conero for a Coppa Italia Serie D fixture on Wednesday 7 October (14:00 WAT).

Current form

Ancona, last 5: WDDWL Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Sporting Trestina, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 1 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 0.8 conceded per game.

Fossombrone, last 5: WDLWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Atletico Ascoli, away. Away from home the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.0 scored, 1.5 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Ancona 1.9 xG, Fossombrone 0.8 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 46%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Ancona 64%, draw 22%, Fossombrone 14%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Ancona to win (64%, odds 1.45). Most likely score in line with that pick: Ancona 1–0 Fossombrone. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Ancona64%fair 1.56 · @1.45
Draw22%fair 4.58 · @3.90
Fossombrone14%fair 7.07 · @5.75
2.73Expected goals
1.94Ancona xG
0.79Fossombrone xG
46%Both score
51%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–013%
2–012%
1–110%
2–110%
3–08%
0–07%

From our goals model: Ancona 1.9 – 0.8 Fossombrone expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultAncona to win ✗64%1.561.45
Double chanceAncona or draw ✓86%1.161.10
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗54%1.85–
Draw no betAncona (draw no bet)82%1.22–
Asian handicapAncona -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✗64%1.55–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓76%1.32–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗51%1.951.85
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓71%1.41–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓86%1.16–
First team to scoreAncona to score first66%1.51–
Half-time resultAncona ahead at half-time ✗46%2.18–
Half-time / full-timeHT Ancona / FT Ancona ✗41%2.43–
Correct scoreCorrect score 3–0 ✗8%12.62–

Recent results

Ancona – last 6

WDDWLW
4 Octvs Sporting Trestina2–0W
27 Sep@ Angelana1–1D
20 Sepvs L'Aquila2–2D
16 Sep@ Maceratese1–0W
13 Sepvs Montecchio Gallo0–1L
6 Sep@ Notaresco2–1W
1.3Scored / game
0.8Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Fossombrone – last 6

WDLWLW
4 Oct@ Atletico Ascoli1–0W
27 Sep@ Vigor Senigallia0–0D
20 Sepvs Lanciano FC2–4L
16 Sep@ Sporting Trestina1–0W
13 Sepvs L'Aquila0–4L
6 Sep@ Real Giulianova2–1W
1.0Scored / game
1.5Conceded / game
33%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Ancona and Fossombrone.

Ancona vs Fossombrone head-to-head page →

More Coppa Italia Serie D predictions

League hub
FT Brusaporto2 Chievo1 120%3.70X22%3.40258%1.83 0.8–1.7xG X2Chievo or draw 80%@1.30 ✗
FT Flaminia0 Robur Siena3 125%2.40X52%3.20223%2.62 1.4–1.3xG 1XFlaminia or draw 77%@1.40 ✗
FT Igea Virtus3 Reggina2 123%3.50X21%3.40256%1.90 1.0–1.7xG 2Reggina to win 56%@1.90 ✗
FT Lentigione1 Piacenza3 135%2.60X23%3.00241%2.50 1.2–1.3xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 55%@1.70 ✗
FT Sasso Marconi Zola1 Cittadella Vis Modena0 126%3.00X22%3.25252%2.10 0.9–1.5xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 56%@1.67 ✓
FT Sestri Levante1 Pistoiese0 111%4.75X25%3.70264%1.57 0.7–1.9xG 2Pistoiese to win 64%@1.57 ✗
FT Valenzana3 Saluzzo2 142%2.00X22%3.25236%3.25 1.3–1.2xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 54%@1.75 ✗
FT Città di Varese2 Pro Patria5 112%4.20X25%3.50263%1.70 0.7–1.8xG 2Pro Patria to win 63%@1.70 ✓

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Ancona vs Fossombrone?

Our pick is Ancona to win with a 64% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.45.

Who will win Ancona vs Fossombrone?

On our numbers Ancona have a 64% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Fossombrone 14%.

How many goals will there be in Ancona vs Fossombrone?

We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 46% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Ancona vs Fossombrone?

Our predicted score is Ancona 1–0 Fossombrone, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.

When is Ancona vs Fossombrone?

Ancona vs Fossombrone (Coppa Italia Serie D) kicks off on Wednesday 7 October 2026 at 14:00 (West Africa Time) at Stadio del Conero.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.