Leones del Norte 57%Draw 23%Emelec 20%Expected goals 1.42 – 0.69
80%
Betarazi pick
Leones del Norte or draw
Very strong pick · fair odds 1.25 · bookmaker 1.20 · Lost ✗
9/10Rating
1.20Odds
1
Value bet: Leones del Norte to win @ 1.91 – our chance 57% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +8%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultLeones del Norte to win ✗57% · @1.91
Double chanceLeones del Norte or draw ✗80% · @1.20
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗52% · @1.62
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗84% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗17% · fair 5.81
Leones del Norte vs Emelec: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
21:00 WAT, Sunday 18 October: Leones del Norte v Emelec in the Liga Pro, played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra. In the table, Leones del Norte are 9th on 47 points after 36 matches; Emelec are 10th with 45. Only 2 points split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Leones del Norte, last 5: LDLDW Their latest outing: 0–3 defeat to Libertad, away. Scoring is the worry: just 0.7 goals a game.
Emelec, last 5: LLLWD Their latest outing: 2–3 defeat to Guayaquil City FC, away. Away from home the record reads 0 won, 2 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.2 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Head to head
When they last met (31 Aug 2026) it ended Emelec 2–1 Leones del Norte. The last 2 head-to-heads: Leones del Norte 1 win, Emelec 1, draws 0. Those games averaged 2.5 goals and saw GG land 1 time.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Leones del Norte 1.4 xG, Emelec 0.7 xG – a total near 2.1. On paper it is a low-scoring affair, with under 2.5 at 65%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Leones del Norte 57%, draw 23%, Emelec 20%.
Lower-risk option: Leones del Norte or draw (80%) at 1.20.
GG/NG: NG (52%) at 1.62.
Price worth noting: Leones del Norte to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 57%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Leones del Norte or draw (80%, odds 1.20). Most likely score in line with that pick: Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Leones del Norte57%fair 1.77 · @1.91
Draw23%fair 4.31 · @2.88
Emelec20%fair 4.97 · @3.90
2.11Expected goals
1.42Leones del Norte xG
0.69Emelec xG
48%Both score
35%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–017%
2–012%
0–012%
1–112%
2–18%
0–18%
From our goals model: Leones del Norte 1.4 – 0.7 Emelec expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
What is the prediction for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our pick is Leones del Norte or draw with a 80% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.20.
Who will win Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
On our numbers Leones del Norte have a 57% chance of winning, the draw 23% and Emelec 20%.
How many goals will there be in Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
We expect about 2.1 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 35% likely and both teams score 48% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Our predicted score is Leones del Norte 1–0 Emelec, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.1 goals in total.
When is Leones del Norte vs Emelec?
Leones del Norte vs Emelec (Liga Pro) kicks off on Sunday 18 October 2026 at 21:00 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
