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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bury v Bromsgrove Sporting: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

Bury

DWWWL
2–1
FT

Bromsgrove Sporting

DWWWW
Bury 62%Draw 14%Bromsgrove Sporting 24% Expected goals 2.51 – 1.47
69%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.44 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓

7/10Rating
1.50Odds
1

Value bet: Bury to win @ 1.91 – our chance 62% vs 52% implied by the price (edge +19%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓

Picks by market

ResultBury to win ✓62% · @1.91
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓56% · fair 1.79
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69% · @1.50
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9% · fair 11.58

Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Bury welcome Bromsgrove Sporting for a FA Cup fixture on Saturday 3 October (15:00 WAT).

Current form

Bury, last 5: DWWWL Their latest outing: 3–3 draw with Gainsborough Trinity, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 4 won, 0 lost from 5. The attack is flying at 4.7 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Bromsgrove Sporting, last 5: DWWWW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Leamington, at home. Goals for and against: 1.7 scored, 0.7 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Bromsgrove Sporting, collecting 2.7 points per game to 2.2 for Bury.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bury 2.5 xG, Bromsgrove Sporting 1.5 xG – a total near 4.0. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 69% and GG at 56%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bury 62%, draw 14%, Bromsgrove Sporting 24%.
  • Price worth noting: Bury to win @1.91 – the bookmaker implies 52%, our ratings say 62%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (69%, odds 1.50 – longer than our fair 1.44, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bury 2–1 Bromsgrove Sporting. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bury62%fair 1.61 · @1.91
Draw14%fair 7.04 · @3.50
Bromsgrove Sporting24%fair 4.25 · @3.20
3.99Expected goals
2.51Bury xG
1.47Bromsgrove Sporting xG
56%Both score
69%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–19%
3–17%
1–17%
2–26%
2–06%
3–25%

From our goals model: Bury 2.5 – 1.5 Bromsgrove Sporting expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultBury to win ✓62%1.611.91 ▲
Double chanceEither team to win ✓86%1.171.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓56%1.79–
Draw no betBury (draw no bet) ✓73%1.38–
Asian handicapBury -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓91%1.10–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓69%1.441.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗56%1.77–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓63%1.58–
First team to scoreBury to score first ✓62%1.62–
Half-time resultBury ahead at half-time ✓46%2.16–
Half-time / full-timeHT Bury / FT Bury ✓39%2.54–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓9%11.58–

Recent results

Bury – last 6

DWWWLW
26 Sepvs Gainsborough Trinity3–3D
19 Sepvs Workington5–1W
12 Sepvs AFC Emley4–0W
5 Sepvs Wythenshawe Amateurs8–0W
31 Aug@ Hyde United1–2L
29 Augvs Ilkeston Town7–0W
4.7Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5

Bromsgrove Sporting – last 6

DWWWWW
29 Sepvs Leamington1–1D
26 Sep@ Racing Club Warwick1–0W
22 Sep@ Stratford Town3–2W
19 Sepvs Leek Town2–1W
12 Sepvs Bury Town1–0W
5 Sepvs Nuneaton Town2–0W
1.7Scored / game
0.7Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bury and Bromsgrove Sporting.

Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Brentwood Town3 Dagenham & Redbridge1 117%5.00X17%4.75266%1.42 1.0–2.2xG 2Dagenham & Redbridge to win 66%@1.42 ✗
FT Barton Town Old Boys1 Chorley4 122%5.00X16%5.00262%1.40 0.8–1.7xG 2Chorley to win 62%@1.40 ✓
FT Brackley Town0 Chelmsford City2 140%2.50X23%3.20238%2.50 0.9–0.9xG U2.5Under 2.5 goals 63%@1.80 ✓
FT Bury Town1 Spalding United1 139%2.80X21%3.50240%2.10 2.0–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.67 ✗
FT Buxton0 South Shields2 130%3.00X21%3.50249%2.00 1.6–2.0xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.50 ✗
FT Cambridge City1 Alvechurch2 124%3.60X15%3.60262%1.80 1.4–2.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 66%@1.53 ✓
FT Chesham United4 Real Bedford3 142%2.15X21%3.40237%2.75 2.3–2.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.60 ✓
FT Ebbsfleet United1 Sholing2 167%1.28X17%5.50216%6.50 2.0–0.8xG 1Ebbsfleet United to win 67%@1.28 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 69% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?

On our numbers Bury have a 62% chance of winning, the draw 14% and Bromsgrove Sporting 24%.

How many goals will there be in Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?

We expect about 4.0 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 69% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?

Our predicted score is Bury 2–1 Bromsgrove Sporting, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.0 goals in total.

When is Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting?

Bury vs Bromsgrove Sporting (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 3 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.