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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Bury v Harrogate Town: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England · Gigg Lane

Bury

WLWDW
1–1
FT

Harrogate Town

WWWWL
Bury 22%Draw 21%Harrogate Town 56% Expected goals 1.73 – 2.68
71%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Strong pick · fair odds 1.40 · bookmaker 1.53 · Lost ✗

7/10Rating
1.53Odds

Picks by market

ResultHarrogate Town to win ✗56% · @1.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79% · @1.22
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓63% · fair 1.59
GoalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71% · @1.53
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.24

Bury vs Harrogate Town: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Harrogate Town travel to face Bury on Saturday 17 October in the FA Cup, with Gigg Lane the venue – the ball rolls at 12:30 WAT.

Current form

Bury, last 5: WLWDW Their latest outing: 3–2 win over Alfreton Town, away. In their own stadium the record reads 3 won, 0 lost from 4. The attack is flying at 2.8 goals per game.

Harrogate Town, last 5: WWWWL Their latest outing: 1–0 win over Woking, away. Away from home the record reads 2 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.2 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Bury 1.7 xG, Harrogate Town 2.7 xG – a total near 4.4. That is an open game on paper: 71% for three or more goals, 63% for GG. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Bury 22%, draw 21%, Harrogate Town 56%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (71%, odds 1.53 – longer than our fair 1.40, so there is value too). Most likely score in line with that pick: Bury 1–2 Harrogate Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Bury22%fair 4.47 · @3.40
Draw21%fair 4.67 · @3.70
Harrogate Town56%fair 1.78 · @1.83
4.41Expected goals
1.73Bury xG
2.68Harrogate Town xG
63%Both score
71%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–28%
1–37%
2–27%
2–36%
1–16%
2–15%

From our goals model: Bury 1.7 – 2.7 Harrogate Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultHarrogate Town to win ✗56%1.781.83
Double chanceEither team to win ✗79%1.271.22
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓63%1.59–
Draw no betHarrogate Town (draw no bet)72%1.40–
Asian handicapBury +1.5 (Asian handicap) ✓62%1.62–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓93%1.07–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✗71%1.401.53 ▲
Over/under 3.5 goalsOver 3.5 goals ✗64%1.56–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓55%1.82–
First team to scoreHarrogate Town to score first60%1.67–
Half-time resultHarrogate Town ahead at half-time ✗46%2.19–
Half-time / full-timeHT Harrogate Town / FT Harrogate Town ✗38%2.63–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8%13.24–

Recent results

Bury – last 6

WLWDWW
10 Oct@ Alfreton Town3–2W
6 Oct@ Stockton Town0–1L
3 Octvs Bromsgrove Sporting2–1W
26 Sepvs Gainsborough Trinity3–3D
19 Sepvs Workington5–1W
12 Sepvs AFC Emley4–0W
2.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
67%Both scored
83%Over 2.5

Harrogate Town – last 6

WWWWLL
10 Oct@ Woking1–0W
3 Octvs AFC Hornchurch3–0W
29 Sep@ Hartlepool1–0W
26 Sepvs Eastleigh4–1W
19 Sep@ Boreham Wood1–4L
15 Sepvs AFC Fylde1–2L
1.8Scored / game
1.2Conceded / game
50%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Bury and Harrogate Town.

Bury vs Harrogate Town head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT AFC Rushden & Diamonds2 Morecambe1 120%3.75X20%3.90260%1.67 1.1–2.0xG 2Morecambe to win 60%@1.67 ✗
FT Altrincham0 United of Manchester0 168%1.33X20%4.50212%7.00 2.8–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.44 ✗
FT Barrow0 Gloucester City0 167%1.42X19%4.10214%6.00 2.1–0.8xG 1Barrow to win 67%@1.42 ✗
FT Boreham Wood3 Woking2 166%1.45X18%4.20216%5.75 2.3–1.0xG 1Boreham Wood to win 66%@1.45 ✓
FT Boston United1 Scunthorpe3 148%2.20X21%3.50232%2.70 1.6–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 55%@1.70 ✓
FT Carlisle2 Tamworth1 161%1.53X20%4.00220%5.00 2.1–1.1xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 62%@1.50 ✓
FT Chesham United0 Forest Green0 118%3.90X24%3.75258%1.70 2.2–3.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 78%@1.44 ✗
FT Chorley1 Worcester City1 164%1.53X20%3.80216%5.00 2.0–0.9xG 1Chorley to win 64%@1.53 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Bury vs Harrogate Town?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 71% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.53.

Who will win Bury vs Harrogate Town?

On our numbers Bury have a 22% chance of winning, the draw 21% and Harrogate Town 56%.

How many goals will there be in Bury vs Harrogate Town?

We expect about 4.4 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 71% likely and both teams score 63% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Bury vs Harrogate Town?

Our predicted score is Bury 1–2 Harrogate Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 4.4 goals in total.

When is Bury vs Harrogate Town?

Bury vs Harrogate Town (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 12:30 (West Africa Time) at Gigg Lane.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.