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BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Carlisle v Tamworth: numbers & prediction

FA Cup · England

Carlisle

DWWLL
2–1
FT

Tamworth

LWWWL
Carlisle 61%Draw 20%Tamworth 20% Expected goals 2.11 – 1.11
62%
Betarazi pick

Over 2.5 goals

Good pick · fair odds 1.60 · bookmaker 1.50 · Won ✓

5/10Rating
1.50Odds

Picks by market

ResultCarlisle to win ✓61% · @1.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80% · @1.17
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓52% · fair 1.92
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83% · fair 1.20
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10% · fair 10.13

Carlisle vs Tamworth: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Carlisle welcome Tamworth for a FA Cup fixture on Saturday 17 October (15:00 WAT).

Current form

Carlisle, last 5: DWWLL Their latest outing: 0–0 draw with Kidderminster Harriers, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 0 won, 1 lost from 3. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.

Tamworth, last 5: LWWWL Their latest outing: 1–2 defeat to Barrow, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.

Momentum favours Tamworth, collecting 2.0 points per game to 1.3 for Carlisle.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Carlisle 2.1 xG, Tamworth 1.1 xG – a total near 3.2. Both nets should be busy – over 2.5 sits at 62% and GG at 52%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Carlisle 61%, draw 20%, Tamworth 20%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Over 2.5 goals (62%, odds 1.50). Most likely score in line with that pick: Carlisle 2–1 Tamworth. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Carlisle61%fair 1.65 · @1.53
Draw20%fair 5.12 · @4.00
Tamworth20%fair 5.07 · @5.00
3.22Expected goals
2.11Carlisle xG
1.11Tamworth xG
52%Both score
62%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

2–110%
1–19%
2–09%
1–08%
3–17%
3–06%

From our goals model: Carlisle 2.1 – 1.1 Tamworth expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultCarlisle to win ✓61%1.651.53
Double chanceEither team to win ✓80%1.241.17
Both teams to scoreBoth teams to score ✓52%1.92–
Draw no betCarlisle (draw no bet) ✓76%1.32–
Asian handicapCarlisle -0.5 (Asian handicap) ✓60%1.66–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓83%1.20–
Over/under 2.5 goalsOver 2.5 goals ✓62%1.601.50
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓60%1.67–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓78%1.29–
First team to scoreCarlisle to score first ✓63%1.59–
Half-time resultCarlisle ahead at half-time ✓45%2.23–
Half-time / full-timeHT Carlisle / FT Carlisle ✓39%2.59–
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✓10%10.13–

Recent results

Carlisle – last 6

DWWLLD
10 Octvs Kidderminster Harriers0–0D
3 Oct@ Aldershot Town3–1W
29 Sep@ AFC Fylde2–0W
26 Sepvs Woking2–5L
19 Sep@ Eastleigh0–1L
15 Sepvs Forest Green1–1D
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
33%Over 2.5

Tamworth – last 6

LWWWLW
10 Octvs Barrow1–2L
6 Octvs Leeds United U211–0W
3 Oct@ Hartlepool1–0W
30 Sepvs Sutton Utd2–0W
26 Sep@ Aldershot Town1–5L
19 Sepvs Wealdstone2–1W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Carlisle and Tamworth.

Carlisle vs Tamworth head-to-head page →

More FA Cup predictions

League hub
FT Bury1 Harrogate Town1 122%3.40X21%3.70256%1.83 1.7–2.7xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 71%@1.53 ✗
FT AFC Rushden & Diamonds2 Morecambe1 120%3.75X20%3.90260%1.67 1.1–2.0xG 2Morecambe to win 60%@1.67 ✗
FT Altrincham0 United of Manchester0 168%1.33X20%4.50212%7.00 2.8–1.2xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 70%@1.44 ✗
FT Barrow0 Gloucester City0 167%1.42X19%4.10214%6.00 2.1–0.8xG 1Barrow to win 67%@1.42 ✗
FT Boreham Wood3 Woking2 166%1.45X18%4.20216%5.75 2.3–1.0xG 1Boreham Wood to win 66%@1.45 ✓
FT Boston United1 Scunthorpe3 148%2.20X21%3.50232%2.70 1.6–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 55%@1.70 ✓
FT Chesham United0 Forest Green0 118%3.90X24%3.75258%1.70 2.2–3.5xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 78%@1.44 ✗
FT Chorley1 Worcester City1 164%1.53X20%3.80216%5.00 2.0–0.9xG 1Chorley to win 64%@1.53 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Carlisle vs Tamworth?

Our pick is Over 2.5 goals with a 62% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.50.

Who will win Carlisle vs Tamworth?

On our numbers Carlisle have a 61% chance of winning, the draw 20% and Tamworth 20%.

How many goals will there be in Carlisle vs Tamworth?

We expect about 3.2 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 62% likely and both teams score 52% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Carlisle vs Tamworth?

Our predicted score is Carlisle 2–1 Tamworth, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 3.2 goals in total.

When is Carlisle vs Tamworth?

Carlisle vs Tamworth (FA Cup) kicks off on Saturday 17 October 2026 at 15:00 (West Africa Time).

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.