Value bet: Cheltenham to win @ 2.75 – our chance 40% vs 36% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultCheltenham to win ✗40% · @2.75
Double chanceEither team to win ✗75% · @1.28
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓60% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓75% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 11.09
Cheltenham vs Crewe: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Crewe travel to face Cheltenham on Tuesday 17 March in the League Two, with EV Charger Points Stadium the venue – the ball rolls at 20:45 WAT. In the table, Cheltenham are 5th, upper half, on 21 points after 14 matches; Crewe are 4th (among the top four) with 22. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Cheltenham, last 5: DDDWD Their latest outing: 2–2 draw with Fleetwood Town, away. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.6 conceded per game.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Cheltenham 1.5 xG, Crewe 1.3 xG – a total near 2.8. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 60%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Cheltenham 40%, draw 25%, Crewe 35%.
GG/NG: GG (60%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Cheltenham to win @2.75 – the bookmaker implies 36%, our ratings say 40%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Cheltenham 1–1 Crewe. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Cheltenham40%fair 2.48 · @2.75
Draw25%fair 4.00 · @3.30
Crewe35%fair 2.89 · @2.48
2.82Expected goals
1.53Cheltenham xG
1.28Crewe xG
60%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–09%
2–19%
0–18%
1–28%
2–07%
From our goals model: Cheltenham 1.5 – 1.3 Crewe expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Cheltenham
Crewe
Attack vs League Two average
+12%
-9%
Goals conceded vs average
+24%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.75
1.29
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Cheltenham to win✗
40%
2.48
2.75 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✗
75%
1.33
1.28
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
60%
1.67
1.67
Draw no bet
Cheltenham (draw no bet)
54%
1.86
–
Asian handicap
Crewe +1 (Asian handicap)✓
73%
1.38
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
75%
1.34
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals✗
51%
1.95
1.93
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
70%
1.43
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
85%
1.18
1.11
First team to score
Cheltenham to score first
51%
1.95
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Cheltenham / FT Cheltenham✗
26%
3.90
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
11.09
–
Recent results
Cheltenham – last 5
DDDWD
10 Mar
@ Fleetwood Town
2–2
D
6 Mar
vs Barrow
2–2
D
27 Feb
@ Harrogate Town
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Salford City
3–2
W
17 Feb
@ Bromley
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.6Conceded / game
100%Both scored
60%Over 2.5
Crewe – last 2
WL
21 Feb
@ Swindon Town
2–1
W
17 Feb
vs Fleetwood Town
0–1
L
1.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
50%Both scored
50%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Cheltenham and Crewe.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Cheltenham vs Crewe?
On our numbers Cheltenham have a 40% chance of winning, the draw 25% and Crewe 35%.
How many goals will there be in Cheltenham vs Crewe?
We expect about 2.8 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 60% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Our predicted score is Cheltenham 1–1 Crewe, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.8 goals in total.
When is Cheltenham vs Crewe?
Cheltenham vs Crewe (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at EV Charger Points Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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