Value bet: Gillingham to win @ 3.05 – our chance 37% vs 33% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Lost ✗
Picks by market
ResultSwindon Town to win ✓38% · @2.24
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.25
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✗57% · @1.67
GoalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73% · @1.30
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–2 ✗8% · fair 13.03
Gillingham vs Swindon Town: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
20:45 WAT, Tuesday 17 March: Gillingham v Swindon Town in the League Two, played at Priestfield Stadium. In the table, Gillingham are 8th, upper half, on 20 points after 14 matches; Swindon Town are 13th (lower half) with 19. Only 1 point split them, so the winner climbs above the loser.
Current form
Gillingham, last 3: LLL Their latest outing: 1–5 defeat to Milton Keynes Dons, at home. Scoring is the worry: just 0.3 goals a game.
Swindon Town, last 3: DLW Their latest outing: 1–1 draw with Bristol Rovers, at home. Goals for and against: 1.3 scored, 1.3 conceded per game.
Momentum favours Swindon Town, collecting 1.3 points per game to 0.0 for Gillingham.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Gillingham 1.4 xG, Swindon Town 1.2 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 57%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Gillingham 37%, draw 26%, Swindon Town 38%.
GG/NG: GG (57%) at 1.67.
Price worth noting: Gillingham to win @3.05 – the bookmaker implies 33%, our ratings say 37%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (73%, odds 1.30). Most likely score in line with that pick: Gillingham 1–1 Swindon Town. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Gillingham37%fair 2.74 · @3.05
Draw26%fair 3.90 · @3.40
Swindon Town38%fair 2.64 · @2.24
2.61Expected goals
1.38Gillingham xG
1.23Swindon Town xG
57%Both score
49%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–112%
1–010%
0–19%
2–19%
1–28%
0–07%
From our goals model: Gillingham 1.4 – 1.2 Swindon Town expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Gillingham
Swindon Town
Attack vs League Two average
+3%
-16%
Goals conceded vs average
+8%
-10%
Our expected goals here
1.44
1.04
Our own ratings from every League Two result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Swindon Town to win✓
38%
2.64
2.24
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.35
1.25
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✗
57%
1.75
1.67
Draw no bet
Swindon Town (draw no bet)✓
51%
1.97
–
Asian handicap
Swindon Town +1 (Asian handicap)✓
76%
1.32
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
73%
1.37
1.30
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✓
51%
1.96
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✓
72%
1.39
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✓
86%
1.16
1.11
First team to score
Gillingham to score first✗
49%
2.04
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.32
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Gillingham / FT Gillingham✗
24%
4.25
–
Correct score
Correct score 1–2✗
8%
13.03
–
Recent results
Gillingham – last 3
LLL
10 Mar
vs Milton Keynes Dons
1–5
L
21 Feb
vs Oldham
0–3
L
17 Feb
@ Chesterfield
0–1
L
0.3Scored / game
3.0Conceded / game
33%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Swindon Town – last 3
DLW
28 Feb
vs Bristol Rovers
1–1
D
21 Feb
vs Crewe
1–2
L
17 Feb
@ Barnet
2–1
W
1.3Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
100%Both scored
67%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Gillingham and Swindon Town.
What is the prediction for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 73% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.30.
Who will win Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
On our numbers Gillingham have a 37% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Swindon Town 38%.
How many goals will there be in Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 57% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Our predicted score is Gillingham 1–1 Swindon Town, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Gillingham vs Swindon Town?
Gillingham vs Swindon Town (League Two) kicks off on Tuesday 17 March 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at Priestfield Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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