Value bet: Hull City to win @ 2.48 – our chance 45% vs 40% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk. Won ✓
Picks by market
ResultHull City to win ✓45% · @2.48
Double chanceEither team to win ✓74% · @1.30
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score ✓55% · @1.80
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✗74% · @1.28
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–1 ✗9% · fair 10.54
Hull City vs Derby: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
Hull City welcome Derby to MKM Stadium for a Championship fixture on Tuesday 24 February (20:45 WAT).
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Hull City 1.6 xG, Derby 1.0 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 47%, GG 55%. Both teams' recent matches have tended to go over 2.5.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Hull City 45%, draw 26%, Derby 30%.
GG/NG: GG (55%) at 1.80.
Price worth noting: Hull City to win @2.48 – the bookmaker implies 40%, our ratings say 45%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Under 3.5 goals (74%, odds 1.28). Most likely score in line with that pick: Hull City 1–0 Derby. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Hull City45%fair 2.24 · @2.48
Draw26%fair 3.91 · @3.20
Derby30%fair 3.36 · @2.80
2.57Expected goals
1.59Hull City xG
0.98Derby xG
55%Both score
47%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–112%
2–010%
2–19%
0–08%
0–17%
From our goals model: Hull City 1.6 – 1.0 Derby expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Hull City to win✓
45%
2.24
2.48 ▲
Double chance
Either team to win✓
74%
1.34
1.30
Both teams to score
Both teams to score✓
55%
1.81
1.80
Draw no bet
Hull City (draw no bet)✓
60%
1.67
–
Asian handicap
Derby +1 (Asian handicap)✗
64%
1.56
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals✓
71%
1.41
1.35
Over/under 2.5 goals
Under 2.5 goals✗
53%
1.88
1.75
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals✗
74%
1.35
1.28
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals✗
87%
1.14
1.09
First team to score
Hull City to score first
57%
1.75
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time✓
43%
2.34
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Hull City / FT Hull City✗
31%
3.20
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1✗
9%
10.54
–
Recent results
Hull City – last 2
LL
21 Feb
vs QPR
1–3
L
13 Feb
vs Chelsea
0–4
L
0.5Scored / game
3.5Conceded / game
50%Both scored
100%Over 2.5
Derby – last 1
L
21 Feb
@ Watford
0–2
L
0.0Scored / game
2.0Conceded / game
0%Both scored
0%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Hull City and Derby.
Our pick is Under 3.5 goals with a 74% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.28.
Who will win Hull City vs Derby?
On our numbers Hull City have a 45% chance of winning, the draw 26% and Derby 30%.
How many goals will there be in Hull City vs Derby?
We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 47% likely and both teams score 55% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Hull City vs Derby?
Our predicted score is Hull City 1–0 Derby, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.
When is Hull City vs Derby?
Hull City vs Derby (Championship) kicks off on Tuesday 24 February 2026 at 20:45 (West Africa Time) at MKM Stadium.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
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