Wednesday 11 November 2026 20 live now 66% correct · last 30 days JackpotsNewsTelegram18+
BetaraziFootball predictions · read by the numbers

Newport City v Baglan Dragons: numbers & prediction

FAW Championship · Wales · Newport Stadium

Newport City

DWW
1–2
FT

Baglan Dragons

LL
Newport City 52%Draw 24%Baglan Dragons 24% Expected goals 1.52 – 1.06
52%
Betarazi pick

Newport City to win

Fair pick · fair odds 1.92 · bookmaker 1.62 · Lost ✗

3/10Rating
1.62Odds

Picks by market

ResultNewport City to win ✗52% · @1.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76% · @1.22
Both teams scoreNot both teams to score ✗50% · fair 1.98
GoalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74% · fair 1.35
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12% · fair 8.68

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons: Betarazi preview and prediction

The fixture

Newport City welcome Baglan Dragons to Newport Stadium for a FAW Championship fixture on Friday 6 March (20:30 WAT). In the table, Newport City are 13th, lower half, on 13 points after 11 matches; Baglan Dragons are 5th (upper half) with 20.

Current form

Newport City, last 3: DWW Their latest outing: 4–4 draw with Carmarthen Town, at home. Scoring is no problem – 2.3 a game lately.

Where the goals come from

Betarazi's ratings give Newport City 1.5 xG, Baglan Dragons 1.1 xG – a total near 2.6. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 49%, GG 50%.

Markets worth a look

  • 1X2 according to our numbers – Newport City 52%, draw 24%, Baglan Dragons 24%.

Our call before kick-off

Our pre-match call was Newport City to win (52%, odds 1.62). Most likely score in line with that pick: Newport City 1–0 Baglan Dragons. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.

Result chances

Newport City52%fair 1.92 · @1.62
Draw24%fair 4.19 · @3.70
Baglan Dragons24%fair 4.17 · @4.50
2.58Expected goals
1.52Newport City xG
1.06Baglan Dragons xG
50%Both score
49%Over 2.5

Score grid: top six

1–112%
1–012%
2–19%
2–09%
0–18%
0–08%

From our goals model: Newport City 1.5 – 1.1 Baglan Dragons expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.

Team ratings (Betarazi)

Newport CityBaglan Dragons
Attack vs FAW Championship average+1%-35%
Goals conceded vs average+5%-24%
Our expected goals here1.381.15

Our own ratings from every FAW Championship result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.

All markets: our price vs the bookmaker

MarketMost likelyChanceFair oddsBookmaker
Match resultNewport City to win ✗52%1.921.62
Double chanceEither team to win ✓76%1.311.22
Both teams to scoreNot both teams to score ✗50%1.98–
Draw no betNewport City (draw no bet) ✗69%1.46–
Asian handicapBaglan Dragons +1 (Asian handicap) ✓68%1.47–
Over/under 1.5 goalsOver 1.5 goals ✓73%1.37–
Over/under 2.5 goalsUnder 2.5 goals ✗51%1.981.95
Over/under 3.5 goalsUnder 3.5 goals ✓74%1.35–
Over/under 4.5 goalsUnder 4.5 goals ✓88%1.14–
First team to scoreNewport City to score first54%1.84–
Half-time resultLevel at half-time ✓43%2.33–
Half-time / full-timeHT Newport City / FT Newport City ✗29%3.49–
Correct scoreCorrect score 1–0 ✗12%8.68–

Recent results

Newport City – last 3

DWW
1 Marvs Carmarthen Town4–4D
20 Febvs Llantwit Major2–1W
13 Feb@ Afan Lido1–0W
2.3Scored / game
1.7Conceded / game
67%Both scored
67%Over 2.5

Baglan Dragons – last 2

LL
21 Feb@ Pontypridd Town0–2L
17 Feb@ Trefelin0–3L
0.0Scored / game
2.5Conceded / game
0%Both scored
50%Over 2.5

Head to head

No previous meetings on record between Newport City and Baglan Dragons.

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons head-to-head page →

FAW Championship table

#TeamPWDLGDPts
1Pontypridd Town13832+1327
2Aberystwyth Town11812+1825
3Swansea University11731+1924
4Caerau (Ely)13715+122
5Baglan Dragons13625020
6Ynyshir Albions11542+719
7Afan Lido14536-218
8Trethomas Bluebirds13454+317
9Treowen Stars12525-117
10Carmarthen Town13436-615
11Pontardawe Town11425-114
12Caerphilly Athletic13427-714
13Newport City11344+413
14Cardiff Draconians11335-512
15Llantwit Major12336-1212
16llanelli AFC140311-313

More FAW Championship predictions

League hub
FT Ammanford AFC2 Cardiff Draconians1 152%1.83X24%3.30224%3.60 1.7–1.1xG 1XAmmanford AFC or draw 76%@1.22 ✓
FT Cwmbran Celtic1 Ynyshir Albions3 129%2.90X23%3.25248%2.05 1.4–2.0xG GGBoth teams to score 65%@1.50 ✓
FT Pontypridd Town0 Llantwit Major4 151%2.05X22%3.30227%3.10 2.0–1.3xG O2.5Over 2.5 goals 58%@1.85 ✓
FT Trethomas Bluebirds4 Carmarthen Town5 141%2.80X23%3.10236%2.20 2.1–1.7xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.62 ✓
FT Denbigh Town0 Brickfield Rangers1 147%1.57X23%3.90230%4.33 1.7–1.8xG GGBoth teams to score 68%@1.50 ✗
FT Llandudno2 Holywell1 156%1.44X22%4.00222%5.00 2.2–1.5xG GGBoth teams to score 66%@1.57 ✓
FT Newtown AFC0 Gresford Athletic5 169%1.44X19%4.00212%4.80 2.6–0.8xG 1Newtown AFC to win 69%@1.44 ✗

Frequently asked questions

What is the prediction for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

Our pick is Newport City to win with a 52% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.62.

Who will win Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

On our numbers Newport City have a 52% chance of winning, the draw 24% and Baglan Dragons 24%.

How many goals will there be in Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

We expect about 2.6 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 49% likely and both teams score 50% of the time on our projection.

What is the predicted score for Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

Our predicted score is Newport City 1–0 Baglan Dragons, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.6 goals in total.

When is Newport City vs Baglan Dragons?

Newport City vs Baglan Dragons (FAW Championship) kicks off on Friday 6 March 2026 at 20:30 (West Africa Time) at Newport Stadium.

Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.