Value bet: Both teams to score @ 2.00 – our chance 56% vs 50% implied by the price (edge +11%). Bigger price, more risk.
Picks by market
ResultEldense to win59% · @1.40
Double chanceEldense or draw81% · @1.04
Both teams scoreBoth teams to score56% · @2.00
GoalsOver 1.5 goals75% · @1.25
Correct scoreCorrect score 2–110% · fair 10.23
Eldense vs Marbella: Betarazi preview and prediction
The fixture
On Sunday 3 May the Primera División RFEF Group 2 brings Eldense against Marbella at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat. Kick-off: 19:30 WAT.
Current form
Eldense, last 5: WWWLD Their latest outing: 3–0 win over Europa Fc, at home. In their own stadium the record reads 2 won, 0 lost from 3. The attack is flying at 2.0 goals per game. Defensively they have kept 2 clean sheets in that run.
Marbella, last 5: WLLWW Their latest outing: 2–0 win over Gimnastic, at home. Away from home the record reads 1 won, 2 lost from 4. Goals for and against: 1.8 scored, 1.3 conceded per game. Defensively they have kept 3 clean sheets in that run.
Where the goals come from
Betarazi's ratings give Eldense 1.7 xG, Marbella 1.0 xG – a total near 2.7. Neither a goal-fest nor a stalemate: over 2.5 is 51%, GG 56%.
Markets worth a look
1X2 according to our numbers – Eldense 59%, draw 22%, Marbella 19%.
GG/NG: GG (56%) at 2.00.
Price worth noting: Both teams to score @2.00 – the bookmaker implies 50%, our ratings say 56%.
Our call before kick-off
Our pre-match call was Over 1.5 goals (75%, odds 1.25). Most likely score in line with that pick: Eldense 1–1 Marbella. Settled on the 90-minute result. Nothing in football is guaranteed – 18+, bet only what you can afford.
Result chances
Eldense59%fair 1.69 · @1.40
Draw22%fair 4.54 · @4.10
Marbella19%fair 5.35 · @7.00
2.72Expected goals
1.74Eldense xG
0.98Marbella xG
56%Both score
51%Over 2.5
Score grid: top six
1–012%
1–111%
2–010%
2–110%
0–07%
0–16%
From our goals model: Eldense 1.7 – 1.0 Marbella expected. Correct scores are long shots even at the top of this list.
Team ratings (Betarazi)
Eldense
Marbella
Attack vs Primera División RFEF Group 2 average
+9%
+13%
Goals conceded vs average
+3%
+1%
Our expected goals here
1.84
1.23
Our own ratings from every Primera División RFEF Group 2 result in the last 14 months, recent games counting more. Attack +20% = scores 20% more than an average side; goals conceded −20% = a tighter defence than average. They feed into every chance on this page.
All markets: our price vs the bookmaker
Market
Most likely
Chance
Fair odds
Bookmaker
Match result
Eldense to win
59%
1.69
1.40
Double chance
Eldense or draw
81%
1.23
1.04
Both teams to score
Both teams to score
56%
1.80
2.00 ▲
Draw no bet
Eldense (draw no bet)
76%
1.32
–
Asian handicap
Marbella +1.5 (Asian handicap)
69%
1.45
–
Over/under 1.5 goals
Over 1.5 goals
75%
1.34
1.25
Over/under 2.5 goals
Over 2.5 goals
51%
1.98
1.85
Over/under 3.5 goals
Under 3.5 goals
71%
1.42
1.33
Over/under 4.5 goals
Under 4.5 goals
86%
1.16
–
First team to score
Eldense to score first
60%
1.67
–
Half-time result
Level at half-time
41%
2.43
–
Half-time / full-time
HT Eldense / FT Eldense
34%
2.93
–
Correct score
Correct score 2–1
10%
10.23
–
Recent results
Eldense – last 5
WWWLD
3 Apr
vs Europa Fc
3–0
W
29 Mar
@ Tarazona
2–1
W
22 Mar
vs Ibiza
3–0
W
4 Mar
@ Villarreal II
0–2
L
22 Feb
vs Alcorcon
2–2
D
2.0Scored / game
1.0Conceded / game
40%Both scored
80%Over 2.5
Marbella – last 6
WLLWWD
19 Apr
vs Gimnastic
2–0
W
10 Apr
@ Atlético Madrid II
4–5
L
29 Mar
@ Hércules
0–2
L
22 Mar
vs Sevilla Atletico
3–0
W
15 Mar
@ Ibiza
1–0
W
11 Mar
@ Real Murcia
1–1
D
1.8Scored / game
1.3Conceded / game
33%Both scored
33%Over 2.5
Head to head
No previous meetings on record between Eldense and Marbella.
Our pick is Over 1.5 goals with a 75% chance, at bookmaker odds of 1.25.
Who will win Eldense vs Marbella?
On our numbers Eldense have a 59% chance of winning, the draw 22% and Marbella 19%.
How many goals will there be in Eldense vs Marbella?
We expect about 2.7 goals. Over 2.5 goals is 51% likely and both teams score 56% of the time on our projection.
What is the predicted score for Eldense vs Marbella?
Our predicted score is Eldense 1–1 Marbella, the most likely score that fits our pick. We expect about 2.7 goals in total.
When is Eldense vs Marbella?
Eldense vs Marbella (Primera División RFEF Group 2) kicks off on Sunday 3 May 2026 at 19:30 (West Africa Time) at Estadio Nuevo Pepico Amat.
Numbers from Betarazi' team ratings and score grid, with bookmaker lines for late news. Kick-off times shown in your local time. Predictions are estimates, not guarantees – 18+, please bet responsibly.
Teruel0
Tarazona0
Juventud Torremolinos3
Atlético Madrid II1
Villarreal II1
Hércules0
Ibiza
Sanluqueño
Sabadell
Real Murcia